Office Hours #1
Welcome to Office Hours! This is a series that will review some of the key stories and performances of players tracked in the last week, some quick thoughts and insights and where they moved on my board if at all. Might even include some drafted prospect blurbs in the future, who knows! At this point in the season, I’ve tracked 391 performances across 160 players in my database. From here onwards, new players added will be rare to make more robust data down the stretch for the ~90 players that likely will end up on my final rankings in June. In these pieces we’ll be quickly examining some curious cases that I’ve seen recently, and subscribers will get early access to these, so if you aren’t already, be sure to click the button at the bottom of the post to sign up today and get these as soon as I put them out!
Cole Hutson - Team USA U18 NTDP - Currently Ranked 57th
The Hutson brothers are a fascinating pair of prospects these days to analyze as defenders. They are exciting, creative, confident and unlike almost anyone else at the position. Their Achilles heels have always been when pucks are coming their way defensively and in the defensive zone. Physical play is almost a non-starter for both, and their mobility to close gaps and finish with stick checks and contact are not likely to intimidate NHL opponents. With youngling Cole eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft, my early take on Cole Hutson was significantly cooler than his brother around the same age. The intent to push offense, shake off forecheckers and create in the offensive zone was there, but the deceptiveness, quickness and skill level just weren’t on the same level, with similar defensive issues at play as Lane has to overcome. He was losing physical battles, missing stick checks and relinquishing defensive chances, as well as taking on far too much risk in transition without enough speed or skill to find his way through the neutral zone at a projectable level. For a time, Hutson wasn’t even on my board for June, but as time has gone by, my view has changed, and the most recent game tracked solidified him in my late 2nd round for the time being.
Hutson seems to have refined his game significantly and morphed into a much more NHL-like pass-first puck transporter. Rather than focusing so much on skill and deception, Hutson uses his edges through turns to create space rather than skill alone, and shows a bit more explosiveness to navigate around the ice. The impressive bit is his sense of timing on his passes, finding seams to linemates and hitting them at the right time to make the pass as easy as possible. Even passing through traffic, Hutson seems to have a strong grasp of when and how to get pucks through feet and sticks. While Lane may have a highly impressive level of skill and higher end vision of more impressive plays, Cole just goes out and executes good plays with the puck more and more every time I see him. The defending is still worrisome, both in transition and in his own end, and his upside doesn’t overwhelm his shortcomings in the same way as Lane’s might. Cole Hutson is a curious case that I imagine gets drafted later than he should be drafted, but his NHL likelihood remains a question mark. He’s come a ways though, and with a few years in college, who knows what’s possible?
Ivan Demidov - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - Currently Ranked 2nd
It isn’t controversial to say that Ivan Demidov started the season in worrying form. His reliance on skill and self-directed puck possession without high end pace or separation speed exposed him as a significantly limited player in the KHL for a time. The first tracked game of mine in the MHL was an excellent showcase of those issues, just against worse competition in his age group. Since that time, he has absolutely exploded offensively. Since the new year, Demidov has rifled off 37 points in 14 games played, and the tracked data in my database backs up just how absurd he is as an offensive force. Game #4 was against softer competition and his results were predictably outrageous, so I ensure that Game 5 was against a team higher in SKA-1946’s division, and while Demidov came away with a less ridiculous sample, it was still excellent.
The question that rises is what exactly has changed in his game that has unlocked such a level of output. Even in this lower level of competition, I have never seen such results in the MHL, and I absolutely buy what I’m seeing. Demidov made a name for himself last year with his possession-heavy perimeter game that relied on volume over everything. Get the puck, shoot the puck or carry it for 10 seconds and make 4 slot pass attempts while doing so. There wasn’t really any in-between. In transition, Demidov relied on high end skill skill at low speed, trying to put pucks between legs and struggling to generate space from players without fancy looking dekes and evasion. In the time since, Demidov has evolved into a significantly more north-south oriented player, generating significantly better results through his forward stride and pure speed. In the offensive zone, his vision of passing lanes, sense of timing, and willingness to distribute the puck to linemates more often has made him a far more devastating and surgical offensive weapon. Gone are the days of handling pucks as long as he wants, he’s handling pucks as long as he needs to. He’s finding space in scoring areas off the puck, he’s juggling all varieties of transition types almost perfectly (except bodychecking defensively), and is highly successful in all aspects.
My experience with Demidov has gotten to the point where I am increasingly questioning how much I have Macklin Celebrini locked in the first overall slot. Celebrini brings a well-rounded game with capable goal scoring, playmaking, and perception of the game in all zones. Being a natural centre and so effective at the NCAA level at his age, Celebrini has a tough pedestal to improve upon, but if anyone is pushing him, it’s Demidov. The skill, vision, creativity, and his improving ability to manage the puck and quarterback a line on the ice is extremely impressive. He has that “superstar” quality to him that names like Artemi Panarin or Clayton Keller bring, and my concerns about him seem to be alleviated quite significantly. My only concern is that through all this success, he remains in a level he’s far too talented to be in. He’s tearing apart contending rosters consistently and if he’s brought along one step at a time over the next season or two or three, he may come out as the most exciting and productive player in this draft class.
Demidov takes this week’s clip of the week with an explosive rush up the ice leading to his first of three points on the night.
Elias Straume Vatne - Färjestad BK J20 - Currently Ranked 79th
Elias Straume Vatne was a player I was remarkably excited to watch going into this season. He was arguably the best player on the Norwegian U18 team last season, with an excellent J18 year with Färjestad. This year, his translation to J20 competition has been… troublesome. If you want a great view into a highly talented player who struggles to produce to their historical standard, Straume Vatne earlier this season would be a great case study. Skating directly into pressure, soft defensive pressure, trying to outskill everyone on every possession, indirect and lackadaisical passing in the offensive zone, good shot quality but never getting in a position to actually shoot the puck, the list goes on. Eventually Straume Vatne found himself at the tail end of my Watchlist as a potential swing with one of your teams last picks in the draft. His omission from the World Junior team was simultaneously disappointing but not surprising, as much as I wished he were there.
Since the J20 Nationell split in half, Färjestad is having a rough go with a 1-10-3 record against the other top J20 teams in Sweden, and Straume Vatne continues to lack the production you’d expect of such a raw talent, but based on my experience with him this week, he has worked his way back onto my numerical list. Where Straume Vatne was more passive defensively and waiting for breakouts in the neutral zone, he was getting more involved in puck play getting out of his own end and showing a bit more confidence to carry pucks and carry more forward momentum going into and through the neutral zone. He was passing pucks quicker, and through all his ups and downs, is taking or creating 55% of his team’s shot attempts while on the ice. That includes the fact that he has shot the puck twice in three performances, both of which from scoring areas. This touches on another area of note. Of the Färjestad players I’ve tracked this year, that team is consistently among the lowest shot volume teams at both ends. Generally, the players who are responsible for generating what limited offense you get from teams like this are the ones that may fly under the radar and could blossom in different situations.
Straume Vatne likely won’t be drafted particularly high, nor should he be, but I’m expecting another strong performance at the U18s this year as a premier player for the Norwegians that may change his fortunes somewhat. It is certain that less talented players will be drafted this season, but a player this rough around the edges requires patience and study. If it’s me, I get a bit of a sense of a potential scrappy, skilled and annoying energy player one day. He’s more physical than you would expect, but you just don’t see it as often as you’d like. The traits he has, but doesn’t show often enough seem to be numerous in my viewings, but sometimes you have to close your eyes and swing the bat on a guy who shows well at their best and you see more as the years go by.
