Five Takeaways from the 2024 World Junior Championships
The 2024 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships are now in the history books and we can all get back to screaming at our local NHL and PWHL hockey teams while slowly coming to the realization that the playoffs are not within reach, and I go back to watching billions of hours of hockey to make sure I’m as supposedly informed as I’d like to be. In the meantime, we can reflect on the events that transpired and look forward to the future a little, then as your NHL worlds crumble, I’ll be there to help ease you into what is likely to be a wonderfully wild 2024 NHL Draft season.
Rather than going through every team and analyzing them individually, I thought it would be prudent to explore five storylines that I noted to carry forward into the future. This tournament as a whole really was one for the ages in my opinion. The gold medal champion United States team was one of the deepest rosters ever assembled, and while things looked shaky in spots, they were the team to beat, and nobody could when push came to shove. They had swagger, they had skill, they had confidence, and they very often had the puck. A remarkable team filled with future NHL talent that we’ll likely be watching for years to come.
If it weren’t for the Americans, the Swedes would be the other “Golden Generation” roster, better than many we’ve seen on paper in the last few years. While the same level of raw talent on all four lines wasn’t quite there, this was a team with some serious firepower at both skater positions, and I would expect many of these players to at least become strong NHL roleplayers with some serious skill on the side. Strong team, strong tournament, but unfortunately not the result they were hoping for against an all-time American team.
What can you say about the Czechs and Finns here… That bronze medal game was one of the most outrageously entertaining sporting events I’ve ever seen. I can’t recall the last time I saw six unanswered goals, let alone in a medal game. Hockey is a crazy, crazy sport, and based on how the Czechs managed to squeak their way through Canada in the Quarterfinals, only to fall dramatically to the Swedes in the semifinals, I didn’t think the Czechs had much of a shot to out-Finn the Finns. Yet the hockey gods looked down upon me and said “My Dearest Silly Son, behold our power”, and while they dangled the carrot of correctness in front of me through two periods, the thunder of their vengeance struck the universe and the Czechs ripped off five goals to seal a surprise bronze medal win in a tough, grinding game where the score definitely didn’t indicate that. I have no idea how people don’t love more and more scoring in hockey and this game is exactly why. The drama level was pinned at 10 and it was glorious.
This was a tournament of upsets, and in my view not a tournament of disappointment on the part of individual teams. Every team had something to hang their hat on. Latvia beat Germany, Germany beat Finland, Norway nearly avoided relegation after a largely brutal round robin, the Swiss nearly stunned the Swedes in the quarterfinals, and even teams that weren’t satisfied with their finish in Slovakia and Canada at least went down swinging, and unfortunately in heartbreaking fashion. So here are some takeaways for me, but before that, here’s my All-Star Team from the tournament:
Gavin Brindley (USA/CBJ) | Macklin Celebrini (Canada/2024 NHL Draft) | Jonathan Lekkerimäki (Sweden/VAN)
Lane Hutson (USA/MTL) | Trey Augustine (USA/DET) | Axel Sandin Pellikka (Sweden/VAN)
MVP: Jonathan Lekkerimäki (SWE)
Top Goalie: Trey Augustine (USA)
Unexpected Surprise of the Tournament: Matej Prcik (CZE)
Pleasant Surprise of the Tournament: Jani Nyman (FIN)
Jesse Pulkkinen Award: Jesse Pulkkinen, there can only be one. (FIN)
1) Don’t Sleep on Norway
It is very very unfortunate that Norway was relegated. Nothing against Germany, but I’m somewhat more optimistic about the future of Norwegian players than I am about German ones, and was hoping to see their version of a “golden generation” continue to develop and be challenged in the top group, but alas, here we are, and instead we get Kazakhstan for next year. I’m a strong believer in Norway’s youth right now, with some seriously high level talent playing in Sweden and at high levels within Norway. I would expect them to run through the Division 1A tournament with a younger roster next year featuring names like Mikkel Eriksen, Mathias Dehli Elias Straume Vatne, Jørgen Nyhus Myhre and Tinus Luc Koblar who have impressed me in limited viewing this year. The goal for them should at least be to be set up with a cohesive and skilled roster ready to compete in the top division in 2026, which I think is very, very achievable. This is a U18 roster that has played Denmark, Hungary, and Slovakia this year in friendly matches, winning all three by a combined score of 23-6, and saved themselves from relegation last season in the U18 championships. There’s something here, and it’s worth nurturing, regardless of the relegation.
2) Macklin Celebrini is Him.
This kinda goes a little bit without saying, but having seen hundreds of players eligible for this year’s draft over the course of the last four months, I was of the belief that there were a few players that could hold a candle to the 1st overall tier of talent that Macklin Celebrini seemed to have a grip on. Berkly Catton and Cayden Lindstrom may have been interesting options for Canada this year, but I’m almost certain they wouldn’t have played like that. Celebrini was by far the most fun and skilled player on the Canadian roster throughout their tournament, and for a team that somewhat struggled to play with pace and evasion, especially on the rush, Celebrini was there being an absolute machine. The edgework, the power and confidence to push to scoring areas, the awareness of his centre of gravity to avoid pressure, there was so much on display and while I believe you can’t use this tournament to take much away, it really does say something that from basically the moment he stepped on the ice, he was a cut above almost anyone on the ice, or at least largely on his own team. The Canadian team wasn’t nearly as “disappointing” as some have led on, I must say, but if anything that makes what Celebrini achieved even more impressive. It would be difficult to take him from the mantle of 1st overall this season, but there’s still plenty of hockey left to be played, and I haven’t forgotten about SKA St. Petersburg dynamo Ivan Demidov. I’m still waiting for his magic loan to HK Sochi to follow in Matvei Michkov’s steps to find what he’s truly capable of against men… Speaking of Canada and disappointment…
3) Regarding Canada: Frickin’ Chill, but Maybe Reflect a Bit?
Hockey in Canada in the 2020s is… Strange. The world seems to be catching up with regards to developing their best players out of their respective pools, and USA hockey undoubtedly is churning out elite talent almost every season both in the USHL and with the NTDP in Ann Arbour. The factors that drive play in the modern game largely just are not the same as they were 10, even 5 years ago. Sure, you could nitpick the way the roster was constructed in spots, but to me that’s missing the point. Canada was a team largely filled with either smart, effective but safe players, or had a number of highly offensive leaning skilled players who needed the puck already in the offensive zone to play their best. They play the body often and heavily, trying to grind down opponents and win battles, but other teams seemed to play more aggressively positionally, angling rushes into less dangerous areas, and use physical play as a last resort or a tool to separate a player from the puck. Watchign other teams, it felt like the more logical thing to just play the puck itself first, stay on your feet in a gap from your opponent, and allowing yourself the freedom to use a couple strides to get around your opponent and start the other way with support from teammates. Yes, Canada won two gold medals in 2022 and 2023, but if you look deeper, this is a team that hasn’t been as dominant as it was for quite a while now. Quarterfinal eliminations, overtime and shootout wins, lucky bounces here and there, and now the shoe is on the other foot with their exit from this tournament.
I have to reiterate, Canada was not bad. They deserved to win that game against Czechia. They were a very good team at this tournament, but it should be explored why this team looked somewhat hapless in their round robin game against Sweden. Why other countries are developing high end goaltender after high end goaltender. Why Canada’s defensive depth made them look no different on the ice to the defensive depth of a team like Czechia or Finland. Yes, injuries were a factor, and yes there were NHL players not here, but many teams had injuries, many teams had NHL players that were unavailable, and Canada is supposed to be a powerhouse in this game globally. The structure of how we develop players, and how we focus our talented players to challenge them and play their best hockey seems to be somewhat illogical relative to other nations. Many European players play for local town clubs for years. Same teammates, same opponents, competition that fluctuates but ends up concentrated every year, and significantly more flexibility to get players playing at the right level for them. The US has one top junior league with 15 teams in it, and USA Hockey runs a program for the best 15, 16, and 17 year olds in their eyes to push them as far as they possibly can. These players then go to college where they’re facing players well into their 20’s from day 1. Canada has basically infinite AAA and prep school programs around the country, three leagues of 20 top level junior teams with their own drafts, forcing teenagers to move hundreds or thousands of kilometres from home, an entire system of individual provincial leagues below that just for players destined for college and those who couldn’t crack the top junior level, and they’re limited to playing in these leagues and only these leagues until they’re 20 or 21, after which point they go directly to the level right beneath the NHL. It just doesn’t really make any sense relative to other nations. Heck, Russia is dealing with somewhat similar issues, albeit much more politically self-inflicted. They’re clearly trying to maintain the image of strong sports infrastructure, so they’re adding more teams at the top junior level, and giving more teams in the same league to the same elite programs. The KHL is bleeding non-Russian talent, diluting their pool there, and the MHL is now a league where basically half the teams may as well be in a different league on their own, so this isn’t an issue alone to Canada.
What’s the solution? I’m not paid nearly enough to figure that out, let alone implement it, but what I do know is that having lived here for 33 years, I can tell that any structural rocking of the boat may as well be the Titanic sinking for these local towns and cities in this country. Canadians don’t like change, and the voices from outside its largest cities can be extremely loud and protective of their interests, and any change likely comes with what would be perceived as adverse effects for these places and teams. This is anecdotal on my part but many Canadians love to do things by the book, and often according to a moral code of some kind, while one thing I love about American culture is their willingness to try things, their willingness to fund things, and their ability to be creative and above all else, have some fun and act like they’re having fun doing… pretty much anything. Practially speaking, a Canadian version of the US NTDP with a dispersal program after they turn 18 of some kind might be worthwhile? Plop them in the USHL or something and have them play the US NTDP a bunch over the course of a season maybe? I don’t know. Hockey in Canada is an expensive, a rocking sea of politics, economics, and conservative cultural preferences. Change is tough, but I’m hoping that Canada somehow finds a way to regain their status as the shining city on a hill in the world of hockey, because what is good for Canada, is of course, good for the World.
4) I’m Never Underestimating the Finns ever, ever, ever again.
Yes, they didn’t win a medal. Yes, that loss ended up somewhat historically embarrassing for them. It just was not an ideal finish at all. That said, this is more about the bigger picture regarding Finnish hockey that I always seem to forget, and then am reminded of almost every year. This Finnish team brought somewhat of an old-school style hockey team, blended with new school skill and talent. Their best players were big, skilled, and absolutely lethal individual shooters. They were pounding you if they didn’t have the puck, and they were pounding pucks if you gave them space in the offensive zone. Thinking with my NHL cap, do I think it’s a team full of future NHL stars? Not really, but at this level, they are the perfect example of how a grinding but modern style of play looks like. They were often crisp enough on their offensive rushes, and if they weren’t they had the length and strength to fight for possession back. There were flashes of skill and pace from Jere Lassila many times, but to me the story was about who he was surrounded by. For me personally it was a good reminder of what to take home for my own analysis. I wasn’t a huge fan of Lenni Hämeenaho, but I can easily see why he’s improved over last season with better puck skill, a better shot, and more willingness to take pucks to scoring areas. I wasn’t a huge fan of Kasper Haaltunen, but with how physical and tough, he is, with that absolutely bonkers shot of his, his NHL role may be somewhat limited, but you can see an NHL role for him, especially if he ups his speed. Jani Nyman is a perfect example of who to potentially model his improvements after. While not an elite skater, the skill and strength in combination gave Nyman enough ability to be a transition threat as well as a puck possession threat in the offensive zone.
This seems to happen more often than not, where the Finns come in with a bit of a middling team, but turn out a performance that nobody expects. This year fell apart a little bit, but this is a team that should keep their heads held high, with another likely surprisingly strong team next season.
5) USA Hockey’s Last 15 Years are a Miracle on Ice
I’ve been on this planet for quite a while. I remember crying at the television when Marc-Andre Fleury literally handed the USA their first gold medal at this tournament all the way back in 2004. I’ve been around to see more and more USA Hockey and NCAA players find their way into the early rounds of the NHL Draft, and I’ve seen more and more Americans populating the top scorers list in the NHL. Since 2015, I’ve been watching a lot of hockey outside the NHL/AHL pipeline, and let me tell you that this is a country that has come an incredibly long way through my lifetime. What we’re seeing now is what I would call a paradigm shift. It wasn’t just a Gilded Age for American players, starting with Auston Matthews in 2015 and ending with the Smith/Leonard/Perreault line in 2023. This is a systemic shift in the landscape of hockey that I don’t believe is going away. The level of competition in the USHL has even been remarkable on it’s own. This season, some of my favourite American players to watch that couldn’t crack the NTDP are on other USHL teams, elevating their team’s ability in the face of the most elite kids in the nation playing together for a few years in a row. At this level, the Americans have brought a team that is at least favoured or expected to get all the way to a gold medal game for many years in a row. Yes, they may see these games as their Stanley Cup and they have the benefit of years of cohesion, but the talent is undeniable. 5 gold medals in the last 15 tournaments ties Canada’s measure and 10 total medals also ties Canada, but this is not something that was always true, and judging by the talent they have coming through the NHL Draft these days, I don’t think this trend is going to change.
The Canadians have some good players coming in the 2024 NHL Draft, and they’ll almost certainly remain a very strong team in this tournament, but it’s very very difficult to deny that the hockey nation pushing this sport into the future the strongest these days may very well be what USA Hockey has built south of the border.
This tournament is just the best. I say it all the time, but it’s just amazing. The goal of all of this is to entertain, and entertain they did. The personalities, the drama, the beef, the skill, it’s just incredible and something I wish we had a bit more of in the NHL. If you liked it, please be sure to support the Women’s U18 that is now going on in Gothenberg. These women can really play, and if you want to talk about equalization of a sport with more competition, this tournament has been significantly closer and more exciting than it’s been prior. I’ll be watching and following along, and with the PWHL, I’d like to make the women’s game part of my work in some way moving forward.
As a final note, I want to start saying that the events transpiring in Ukraine are horrific and wrong, and I’m a believer in the right to self-determination for a nation free of foreign influence, and Russia’s long history of using of sport to project political power and influence puts them in a position to rightfully be excluded from international competition like this, but I really miss the Russians at this tournament. It’s a real shame to see the strange changes in Russian hockey that I believe is negatively impacting competition level over there, and it’s a real shame that we lack the completely unique and remarkable vibes that the Russian junior team always brought to this tournament. The flash, the risky style of play, the often unbelievable goaltending, it was just such great television every time, even when pouring in five goals to win a gold medal against an overconfident and gloating Canadian team and crowd in 2011 that I witnessed in person while ill, but I’m not bitter, no sir. I really, really hope for brighter times ahead for Ukraine and that this conflict ends as best it can for them without sacrificing their nation, culture, and people. They’ve been through enough over the last, oh, 150 years or so? That said, selfishly I really hope the stage can be set for a return to normalcy for Russian international hockey because in their own way, they’re awesome.
So that’s it, back to the meat-grinder of getting back to the 2024 Draft Analysis and other hockey-related work I do with PuckPreps and Fractal Hockey. What a tremendous tournament, as it usually is, and I can’t wait for the next one in Ottawa. With any luck, I’ll be there myself covering it from the ground, and with more luck, I’ll be making the trip down to Minnesota for the 2026 installment to watch (hopefully) these Norwegians I’m so excited for… make the… quarterfinals? Maybe? I admit I have strange priorities. In any case, thank you so much for reading, and I’ll be seeing you in our livestreams Mondays at 8pm and Thursdays at 2pm!
Previewing the World Junior Relegation Round and Why it Matters
So the Round Robin of the 2024 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship is in the books, and what a round of hockey it was. Germany beating Latvia, Latvia beating Germany, Germany giving Canada a run for their money, Canada getting shut out by Sweden, Sweden blowing a rivalry game against Finland, Finland losing to Germany, I could go on. Group A was a wild show, and Group B while a little more stable certainly had it’s fair share of surprises. Norway held the USA to just 4 goals, and the Czechs almost squeaking out a win over an all-time American roster made things a bit more interesting and gave the USA a bit to think about going into the playoff rounds. In Germany’s case, everything came down to their game against Canada, separating them from potentially 2nd in their division and the upcoming relegation match, and dangit they came close…ish!
So onto the relegation round. I think it’s important to cover these fledgling teams, especially after they both put on some relatively heroic performances. There isn’t nobody coming from these countries that can play hockey, and Norway especially seems to be on the right track for a strong group of youngsters moving forward. If it were up to me, this tournament would be even bigger and grander than it already is, but such is life. Celebrating the global reach of this sport is something I think we need more of, especially with the youth of the sport and just how good some of these players are. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård is almost certain to be the highest drafted Norwegian in the NHL Draft and there is likely more to come in the future. I greatly enjoyed watching these teams compete and have absolutely no clue exactly what is going to go down in the relegation game, but both of these teams can keep their heads held high both for their performance this season, and the potential in the seasons to come.
Norway
MVP - Petter Vesterheim
Curiosity - Stian Solberg
I will admit that the Norwegians didn’t quite have as good a round robin as I expected, except for a ridiculously wild game against the powerhouse Americans, holding them to just 4 goals in a 4-1 loss. Allowing 26 goals in four games isn’t going to get you places very often, and two of Norway’s most notable players are ineligible in Noah Steen and Petter Vesterheim, but in my view Vesterheim showed why he should be considered as a re-entry pick for the 2024 NHL Draft. The speed, energy level, and skill stood out as a player operating at a much higher pace than many of his teammates. 2024 Draft eligible Michael Brandsegg-Nygård was a standout as well, showing a great combination of size and skill while evading pressure and earning key controlled zone transitions and drove great results for the Norwegians including tying for the team lead in scoring.
The Norwegians were going to need to rely heavily on the undersized Markus Røhnebæk Stensrud, and while he had a spectacular showing against the Americans, he showed exactly why goalies his size are so difficult to rely on at times. The athleticism was clearly there, but once teams started shooting high and often, with pre-shot passing into scary scoring areas, things got exponentially more difficult. I remain a fan of the guy, as I’ll root for undersized players any day of the week, but this was a tough few games for Norway after a great start to the tournament against the USA.
Will they get relegated against the Germans? It’s entirely possible. The Germans have played tight, selfless and physical hockey, but there’s definitely a little more star power coming from the top of the Norwegian lineup. If all else fails, Norway has some highly interesting talent coming in the future, and 7 players are eligible and likely to return. 2023 U18 standout Elias Straume Vatne is likely entering the stage, but Lukas Nikolaj Pettersen-Finckenhagen, Jørgen Nyhus Myhre and especially Mikkel Eriksen are looking like bright pieces for the Norwegian future on the ice.
Germany
MVP - The Goaltending
Curiosity - Roman Kechter
While the Germans were sent to the relegation round, you can’t largely can’t fault their effort through the tournament considering the group they brought. Julian Lutz was expected to be a principal play driver for the team, but the Germans split their duties well, a trait necessary for any underdog team in this tournament. Roman Kechter and Veit Oswald’s skill and evasion were on display and helped keep Germany afloat against almost all opponents.
The real star of the show seemed to be Matthias Bittner, seemingly coming out of nowhere to make key stops against powerhouses Sweden and Canada. In my view, that Canada game ends extremely lopsided without Bittner in net, even with all the penalties flying around. His quickness, even in desperation and on secondary opportunities were key.
Unfortunately, every game in this tournament can make a huge difference, and a shock at the hands of Latvia puts them in the relegation game against Norway where I would expect them to remain in the top division, but the game could be tighter than expected. The Germans can go home with their heads held high in the least thanks to an extraordinary win over Finland. In case you had your TV on mute, it was their first against the Finns at this tournament ever. It was a tight, grinding game, but the Germans seemed to beat the Finns at their own game, doing a great Metapod impression, hardening their defensive game and taking advantage of the opportunities they had while getting a tremendous performance from Philipp Dietl. I don’t see a tremendous amount of high end talent coming to add to the six names returning for next year, but the Germans always show up to these tournaments ready to grind out another one. That said, David Lewandowski, Rio Kaiser, and Simon Seidl are all names that have popped up on my radar in quick viewings over this season and stretching into last year, so keep an eye peeled for that group to be part of a curious future for the Germans.
As a brief note, there will be a live show after the quarterfinals and semifinals in the evenings of January 3rd and 4th, and we’ll be doing live shows for the Medal Round on the 5th so be sure to subscribe to Scouching on YouTube, Twitch or follow on X to catch the next show and get notified when we go live! Thanks for reading and see you then!
Scouching’s 2024 World Junior Championship Preview
Happy Holidays to you all! Once all the presents are opened and the turkey is consumed, it’s time for the best part of the season: Turkey sandwiches and the World Junior Hockey Championships, gathering the best of the best talent from ten hockey nations under the age of 20. This tournament is always a must-watch series of games full of drama, comebacks and dazzling highlight reel creativity. This year’s installment may lack the star power of names like Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli, but in my view this could be one of the more evenly competed tournaments that could feature some tremendously gif-able moments from quite a few teams.
As is tradition, below is a spreadsheet containing rosters, jersey numbers and some basic data behind some of these names so you can follow along with your favorites!
Relegation Contenders
Germany - 5.79 NHLeS
Player to Watch - Simon Wolf (G)
The Germans tournament is likely to come down to a victory over the Latvians in their division, which in my view may be a bit of a challenge considering the roster the Germans are bringing. A quarterfinal victory seems unlikely at best, but unlike Austria at last year’s tournament, this is a team that should at least be somewhat competitive, featuring a number of players either drafted to the NHL or likely could feasibly be on NHL radars.
Simon Wolf has been having an excellent season playing for the Red Bull Hockey Academy under strong workloads, and he will certainly be relied upon heavily in net. Julian Lutz is likely to be a major part of the offensive equation along with Roman Kechter, a combination of high pace, good skill and high physicality that will be necessary to make an impact against better teams. Moritz Elias factors in as well among other names who have had solid DEL seasons that could provide supplementary punch. Buffalo Sabres draft pick Norwin Panocha should be capable behind the offensive group moving pucks and closing gaps trying to make Wolf’s life a little easier. On the draft-eligible side, Paul Mayer is the only player in his first year of eligiblity and in the international viewings I’ve had of Mayer, I don’t have a whole lot to say and don’t expect him to be a major needle-mover for the Germans.
It’s likely to be a rough ride for this team in a pretty talented group. Could a great goaltending performance keep them afloat and challenge a better team on paper? Of course, this is the World Juniors and I’ve seen many a goaltender rob a team of a win over the last 25 years. Names like Kechner and Lutz can push things in the right direction, but it’ll take some stars aligning and a key win over Latvia to stay out of the danger zone.
Norway - 6.73 NHLeS
Player to Watch - Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (RW)
The team most likely to head to the relegation round out of Group B this year is likely this Norwegian team, but this is not a team to be underestimated if you think you’ll be able to roll over them. There is a little bit of a limited golden generation coming through Norway, and nothing is out of the question at this tournament. The Mora IK trip of Petter Vesterheim, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård and Noah Steen are likely to be seeing plenty of ice together, and we won’t be seeing two of those players at this level again. I’ve been a huge fan of Vesterheim over the last two season, and Noah Steen has developed into a highly skilled net-driven winger against professional competition in Sweden. While I’m not particularly a fan of their defense group, including 2024-eligible Stian Solberg (but I’m happy to have my mind changed here), players like Gabriel Koch, Ludvig Lafton and Christopher Lie have been impressive in spurts when I’ve caught them. There isn’t a ton of depth here, but the top end of the team could surely make an impact, even against some of the best teams in their division. Should they sneak out a few points over the Swiss or perhaps the Czechs, the Norwegians could land themselves in a surprise quarterfinal spot, but it’s going to be tough. 2023 World Under-18 Championship standout and 2024 NHL Draft prospect Elias Straume Vatne was left at home somewhat surprisingly, but after my viewings of him, he’s a frustrating and strange player, albeit highly skilled and creative… almost to a fault.
My expectation in net is that Markus Røhnebæk Stensrud will see the net, at least at first, with significant international experience, helping to earn the Norwegians a spot in this year’s top division tournament. He’s undersized and having a ho-hum season in Norway, and should he falter, the Mora IK system is sending another option in Martin Holtet Lundberg who has had some decent results. They’re going to be busy, but the challenge should be alleviated somewhat with the firepower up front.
Latvia - 7.72 NHLeS
Key Player - Dans Locmelis (C)
The Latvians are going to likely be battling the Germans for a spot in the relegation round, and bouncing around the names on this roster, they’re going to be in for a challenge. It’s the youngest team in the tournament, carrying 9 players eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft for the first time. There is some size in Eriks Mateiko, Emils Veckaktins, and Rainers Rullers among others, and being willing to use it and physically challenge their opponents will likely be key. A power play here and there could be critical to their success, as goaltending and firepower at 5v5 is likely to be a huge challenge. They have shooting threats in Darels Uljanskis and Sandis Vilmanis, and certainly a good amount of physical resilience in their big players, but this tournament is going to be a challenge to keep them in the top division and it could easily come down to a couple of fateful games against a decent Norwegian team, or the Swiss. The advantage they have is that many of these players have experience playing together and certainly show up to tournaments like this, but a deep Cinderella run seems like a bit of a longshot.
Switzerland - 8.15 NHLeS
Key Player - Rodwin Dionicio (D)
I might be one of very few, but the Switzerland/Norway matchup is going to be pivotal for both teams in order to earn a playoff spot. I would put my cash on the Swiss to come out on top, with a number of players coming from an underrated Swiss top men’s division that could really move the needle. Goaltending is absolutely a question mark, as is dependable scoring depth, but Rodwin Dionicio leads a defense group that could be a surprise for NHL Draft nerds if they play Leon Muggli and Daniil Ustinkov as much as they should this year. Muggli has his faults, but the offense and shot on the PP are undeniably positive, and if he isn’t on the ice, Zurich’s Daniil Ustinkov is no slouch in the offensive zone, regardless of what his men’s league production has been. He’s careful with the puck, simple but effective defensively, and has been a mainstay on the Swiss national team for years already, and I hope to see plenty of both he and Muggli this year.
They’re going to need bounces to go their way here and there, and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Norway finds their way into the Quarterfinals over Switzerland, but with the pace and skill of Jamiro Reber and Endo Meier, with the well rounded offensive game of Leo Braillard, Miles Müller and Gregory Weber, if they get some solid insulating defense, staying in the top division should be doable for this group.
Medal Contenders
Czechia - 12.57 NHLeS
Key Player - Jiri Kulich (C)
Czechia is bringing a team that could potentially make some serious waves in this tournament. Led by high end NHL draft selections Jiri Kulich and Eduard Sale, don’t forget about the solid talent around them that could give the team a serious boost. Matyas Sapovaliv returns and should bring a powerful, steady presence to the middle of the ice, and Dominik Rymon has carried his high scoring skilled game from the Czech junior levels through to his WHL experience with the Everett Silvertips. The Prince George Cougars have been a wagon this year, and many eyes are trained on 2024 Draft Eligible Terik Parascak, I’ve found that a ton of that bus driving is being done by Ondrej Becher. He’s slippery, pushes defenders onto their heels with his pace and deception, and could be an outside chance of being an NHL pick himself should his World Junior performance match his excellent WHL campaign. There’s solid depth up front, even if it lacks significant raw firepower outside of Jiri Kulich.
Defensively, the Czechs contain a solid amount of stability and flash, with Tomas Cibulka, 2024 NHL Draft prospect Tomas Galvas and at times, Vojtech Port all showing skill and offensive flashes. Tomas Hamara, Marek Alscher and Adam Jiricek add some level of mobility and safety to offset those previous names, and are great examples of size down the lineup for the Czechs.
There’s no doubt that this team can hold themselves against other medal contending competition and potentially grind out a tough quarterfinal win. The one thing standing in their way is potentially in between the pipes. Michael Hrabal has had his share of shaky starts in the Czech net over the last few years, but his potential is sky-high. If he falters, Jakub Vondras and Michael Schnattinger are largely unproven at this level, but you never know. Goaltending is extremely important in this tournament, and with the team set out in front of Hrabal, if he plays his best, this team could surprise.
Slovakia - 11.43 NHLeS
Key Player - Filip Mesar (RW)
Slovakia may very well have the most underrated roster in the whole tournament. I always highly value players who have spent time playing together, and the Slovak national team has set the stage for many of these players in their youth and where they are today. Defensively there are some gaps for sure, but I’ll be very curious to see 16 year old Luka Radivojevic, who has looked strong in the Swedish junior leagues when I’ve caught him.
The forward group is where their game is going to shine, in my view. Leading returnee Filip Mesar is likely to be an electrifying skilled player relied upon to produce in key moments, but Samuel Honzek, Dalibor Dvorský and Juraj Pekarcik will bring a combination of shooting ability, size and skill to the picture that should diversify the team’s abilities. Adam Sýkora and Martin Misiak are personal favourites with physical intensity and power skill games so I hope to see strong performances in every sense of the term. I’m also expecting another personal favorite in Alex Ciernik to be an offensive factor and make a bit of a name for himself after an exceptional season on a poor Västerviks team in HockeyAllsvenskan.
Adam Gajan, Samuel Urban and Rastislav Elias are a strong trio with excellent international experience, and should their workloads get heavy here, I have faith that they’ll be able to keep it together. This is a team that very nearly eliminated the Canadians last season in the quarterfinals driven by Adam Gajan saving 53 of 57 shots, and many key players are returning from that strong roster. I wouldn’t count this team out of winning a medal this year, and what’s more is 11 players being eligible to return next year as well.
Finland - 14.36 NHLeS
Key Player - Jani Nyman (RW)
Finland is a team I was expecting to look decent coming into this tournament, and I think I’ve forgotten about quite a few players on their roster. On paper, they’re led by Konsta Helenius and his oft-Golden Helmet worthy season with Jukurit, but the thing that I always keep in mind with Finns at this level is that they play as a unit, and when they play physical and counterattack effectively when they get chances, they win. Think of the Florida Panthers last year literally steamrolling through the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and now make them teenagers, and you may have the Finnish roster of this season’s tournament. 9 of their skaters are listed at 6’2” or taller, and only Canada has more in that category, and potentially Latvia depending on their cuts. In a sense, that could matter, and this is a team that may not look like they’re achieving much in a game, and then next thing you know, someone throws a puck in front of the net and a giant man is there to bash it in.
To be more specific, there are many names on this team that I’m a fan of. Jani Nyman brings size, pace and skill with excellent finishing ability, coming into the tournament as the highest scoring Liiga player. Copy paste what I just said about Kasper Halttunen in a way. He’s gigantic, but slow and heavy, but a lethal shot and a physical edge. If someone looks the wrong way at Niklas Kokko in net, he’ll probably be more than happy to get involved. Rasmus Kumpulainen, Emil Hemming, Kalle Kangas, Samu Bau and Lenni Hämeenaho all bring a physical edge as well to chip in on that side of the game.
This team isn’t all toughness and physical play though. Of course there’s Konsta Helenius up front, but Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Oiva Keskinen was one of the few players drafted that I had never seen that I was quite impressed by in my viewings with skill and pace in his game. Jere Lassila has been a Finnish junior team mainstay and brings speed and skill up the middle of the ice and should be able to transport pucks to his bigger and heavier teammates effectively. Coming from the NCAA, Max Koskipirtti and Tommi Männistö are also effective skaters who should be able to chip in with areas the team lacks.
The defensive side of the team also brings a solid amount of skill and shooting ability with Arttu Kärki, Otto Salin, and Kasper Kulonummi bringing a solid combination of these talents. I’ve always had an interest in the skilled but understated Joona Väisänen coming out of the USHL as well. The bizarre wild card in all of this is the gigantic undrafted defender Jesse Pulkkinen. There are some who are considering him a relatively high prospect for the NHL draft this year, with remarkable size, confidence and skill level, and while I’m not quite sold at this point, I’ll be keeping an eye on him for this year’s contest. The Finnish junior league is a wildly unbalanced level of play, and a much older, and much bigger Pulkkinen gets away with a tremendous amount by virtue of his puck protection, creativity, and pure size. I’ve wanted to see him at higher levels of competition, and I haven’t been blown away with his Mestis play, but he could have some really fun moments in this tournament.
There’s clearly lots to dig into about the Finnish roster this year. Their potential to grind out some wins here and there like the Czechs is right there, and if they get some saves from whoever is guarding the pipes, they could take things as far as they want to. They have a physical edge, but skill and finishing ability at all positions. Don’t count them out either.
Medal or Bust
Canada - 21.66 NHLeS
Key Player - Matthew Savoie (C)
Canada is always a… somewhat frustrating team at this tournament. Poor goaltending and too many penalties in a more strict international game is always an Achilles heel that makes their road to a medal significantly harder than it should be. This season, the roster is no slouch, and could easily compete for a gold medal, but my line of thinking that Hockey Canada is more a part of the pack of elite hockey nations rather than a global leader continues to be somewhat reinforced when comparing this roster to the Swedes and United States.
The scoring side of things should not be in doubt. Matthew Savoie, Jagger Firkus and Conor Geekie are in the midst of outstanding WHL seasons. Oh wait, Jagger Firkus was left at home… Ok then! Easton Cowan, Carson Rehkopf, and Denver Barkey in the midst of outstanding OHL seasons of their own, and Jordan Dumais is scoring at a historic rate in the QMJHL. Oh wait, the Canadians sent home Denver Barkey too. Ok! Macklin Celebrini, the likely first overall selection in the 2024 NHL Draft will factor in as well with his impressive combination of offensive tools through strength, shooting, and flashes of playmaking. Brayden Yager, Owen Beck and Nate Danielson will also be major factors down the lineup for the forward group. Regardless of the somewhat questionable dismissals, Canada does have a strong, deep group of forwards more than capable of medaling.
The rest of the team appears to be a huge mixed bag. Their goaltending is a collection of high save percentage QMJHL options and some sub-0.900 goaltending from the much better OHL and WHL, and will certainly be challenged by a number of teams in their group. Defensively, there is a combination of rovers and physical defenders, and their effectiveness will be critical to the success of this team. I’m not a huge believer in Denton Mateychuk, but as a power play weapon, there is lots of potential for him to quarterback play from the blueline, and he’s effective when given freedom to push play offensively on his own. Tanner Molendyk is much the same, but somewhat of a higher pace offensive force, while also carrying some defensive warts. The rest of the defense group is a major question mark to me. There are big, physical players, as well as Jake Furlong, but actual defending in transition in high pace situations and effectively transporting pucks to the talented forward group is a weak point with many of these players, and that will be a common occurrence against the best teams.
The mantra of staying out of the penalty box and easing workloads on the goaltending will be imperative as it is every year. It’ll be fascinating to see how this Canadian group performs. They lack the goaltending of other teams, they lack some level of defensive depth, but the scoring potential is undeniable, and they certainly could be “hard to play against”, but there are some areas for the teams ahead to exploit and challenge.
Sweden - 13.48 NHLeS
Key Player - Jonathan Lekkerimäki (RW)
The Swedes in my view are about as talented a roster as I’ve ever seen recently in this tournament. There is a ton going on here from the frontlines, and should their goaltending keep things together, I could easily see this team getting themselves to their first gold medal game since 2018, driven by elite scoring and strong, physical and resilient depth. The key names will almost certainly revolve around an excellent trio of 2021 NHL Draft picks in Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Noah Östlund and Liam Öhgren, but Filip Bystedt will also likely factor into a diverse role. 2023 NHL Draft picks will fill in the depth well in my view, with David Edstrom, Anton Wahlberg, Otto Stenberg and Felix Unger Sörum bringing skill, pace and smarts with a bit of size to boot in Edstrom and Wahlberg. At the bottom of the lineup, Isac Born, and Zeb Forsfjäll should bring some nice physical forechecking play to eat minutes when needed.
The defense group is also very strong in multiple ways, led by confident skilled puck carriers in Axel Sandin Pellikka, Tom Willander and Mattias Hävelid, with Elias Salomonsson, Elias Pettersson, and Anton Johansson providing strong defense with length, mobility and smarts. The USA roster may carry some more depth, but Sweden should be able to hold their own against the best from front to back. The firepower is there, the ability to play hard and grind minutes is there, and if the goaltending holds strong when needed, this is a team that could easily challenge for a championship, however unlikely it seems on paper. I have a weird feeling that Melker Thelin could have a heck of a tournament, continuing a trend seen in HockeyAllsvenskan this season so far, but predicting goaltending in this tournament is a fickle and largely pointless operation.
United States - 20.06 NHLeS
Key Player - Will Smith (C)
Simply put, this team is absolutely stacked. From the net out, there is talent pretty much across the board. Physical players, skilled players, insane shooters, high-pace playmakers, they have it all. Their top six of Cutter Gauthier, Rutger McGroarty, Frank Nazar, Will Smith, Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard, Jimmy Snuggerud and Gavin Brindley is so loaded that you probably didn’t notice I mentioned nine players. That doesn’t even include players like Oliver Moore, William Whitelaw, Isaac Howard and Carey Terrance who are almost certainly going to provide supplementary offense down the lineup while playing solid defense. Oh yeah, and keep an eye out for the smart and creative playmaking of James Hagens when he hits the ice. The 2025 Draft looks pretty strong with him as part of the top group.
Speaking of defense, there’s even more to write about there. Sure there was much gnashing of teeth regarding leaving Hunter Brzustewicz at home, but when you have Lane Hutson, Seamus Casey, and Zeev Buium on the way, I think you’ll be fine for power play focused offensive creators. Sam Rinzel, Drew Fortescue, and Ryan Chesley are also likely to factor in as stabilizing talents that can get around the ice well. It’s really hard to pinpoint specific things to talk about regarding this roster outside of “they’re really really really good" and that this group has more than enough talent to waddle their way to the gold medal game and put on a show. Jacob Fowler and Trey Augustine in net is a dynamite duo that should also keep whatever pucks that get through this roster out of the net, and certainly aren’t a weak point on an otherwise outstanding roster once again.
The 2024 World Junior Championships are going to be one for the history books, I think. There are so many talented teams, and so many games could come down to a goal here or there, a save here or there, or just a darned lucky bounce at the right time. Sweden, Canada, the USA, Finland, and Slovakia are all bringing strong teams that should be able to go toe to toe with one another and crowd the podium. There are quite a few draft-eligible players I’ll have my eyes trained on as well this season, but all eyes here in North America are likely going to be on the US team alongside the usual overwhelming pressure on the Canadians. I’ll be glued to my television while out in the woods taking some time away over the holidays, and I hope you will be too. Almost every matchup could be a great one this year with plenty of insanity, highlights and surprises.
On the note of taking some time away, Scouching will be a post-quarterfinal stream on January 3, and watch-alongs for the semifinals and medal rounds so stay tuned for a finalized schedule in the coming weeks and subscribe to Scouching’s YouTube or Twitch channels. Before I go, because people love predictions, here are mine! Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you so soon! Enjoy the tournament, and please be nice to these actual teenaged humans on the internet if things don’t go the way you want them too please and thank you.
🥇USA
🥈Sweden
🥉Canada
🎀Slovakia
Tournament MVP: Cutter Gauthier
Best Forward: Cutter Gauthier
Best Defenseman: Axel Sandin Pellikka
Best Goaltender: Melker Thelin
All Star Team:
Cutter Gauthier - Will Smith - Noah Östlund
Axel Sandin Pellikka - Lane Hutson
Melker Thelin
The Return.
Well look who decided to come back… Hello and welcome to Scouching 2.0. In many ways, we’ll be back the same as ever, analyzing the NHL Draft though data-backed analysis, but in others we’re coming back better than ever! First of all, I want to welcome AJ Gidaro to the team as Producer and Social Media Manager. He’s been a supporter for years, has become a great friend, and we’ll be helping with the operation of our weekly livestreams, as well as posting more content on various social platforms for you. I’m extremely excited to work closely and seeing what we can create for you together.
On the note of live shows, we’re now expanding to two shows a week, with one on Monday nights from 8-10pm EST, and Thursday afternoons at 2-4pm EST. We’ll be having guest hosts, interviews, and Q&A sessions like we always have, but a second show earlier in the day will allow for more Europeans to tune in, as well as us Westerners being able to tune in at a different time of day. We’ll also be streaming the show to YouTube, Twitch, and X/Twitter simultaneously, so be sure to subscribe and follow us on whichever platform you prefer so you never miss a show! We will also be expanding our coverage to the NHL, and there are new data tools tracking trends that you can play with on Scouching.ca, with more coming in the future.
The data tracking for the NHL Draft continues of course, and will fuel my analysis, but specific datasets will be withheld for those who desire private consultation. If you’re a member of an organization, or just a highly devoted fan, contract work is available to provide analysis on specific players or groups of players. As such, there won’t be long-form Scouching Reports on our YouTube channel, but the draft recaps and NHL season previews will be available, with early access given to YouTube Members.
I also will take this time to announce that I’m working with PuckPreps providing content on 2006-born players from various levels in North America with a slant towards NCAA hockey, so be sure to check them out to see that content, and many thanks to the team there for welcoming me aboard!
It feels really, really good to make a return. The last eight months have been a time of opportunity, reflection, and much needed rest. I still dedicated countless hours towards gathering data for the 2023 Draft, and I’ve continued with the 2024 class. In recent weeks, restarting the Scouching project has been on my mind to interact with you all, and continue to provide more specialized work in private. If you’d like to support us directly, you can choose to subscribe with an account here on Scouching to access our Discord, data tools, a private question box and more. Other options include a subscription on YouTube to get access to blog posts early, exclusive chat emoji, priority response to comments among other perks, or a subscription on Twitch.