Scouching’s Penultimate 2024 NHL Draft Ranking

It’s that time again folks. NHL teams are being eliminated from playoff contention and legions of fans flock to people such as myself desperately hoping that their team selects boys who hopefully turn into men that help their not-good hockey teams become less not-good. We don’t have all the answers, but as the Fremen of Arrakis exemplify, sometimes all you have is hope, and hopefully I can provide some of that. It’s just too bad there’s no such thing as the Water of Life… What at least this overcommitted analyst has, is hundreds of games of player performances logged and data tracked, and thousands of games archived from generations past to reflect on and carry forward, and combining the data and video in the storage server can hopefully give you the guidance you’re looking for.

Various hockey leagues around the world are well into their playoff seasons, and with the Under-18 Championships coming in a few weeks, another quick cross-section of the 2024 NHL Draft Class is necessary. Plenty has changed, but my views on many players are solidifying, the takes are heating up, and I’m more and more ready to party when the time comes in Vegas. The 2024 NHL Draft class is certainly an interesting one. While I still believe this isn’t the deepest most loaded pool of players out there, it is definitely one of the more intriguing ones, full of players that will live or die by their development curves. So many players are so talented in certain subsections of the game, but show non-projectable traits in others. Some are balanced, but may not show enough to play a given role in the NHL down the road. Some are supremely talented but need to rely on that talent to get by, while others are supremely intelligent, hard-nosed players who PTFG (or, Play the F***ing Game for the uninitiated) but seem to lack the oomph necessary to drive serious results in the NHL without significant role creation and line construction strategy. Does that make it a “bad “ or “weak” draft class? Absolutely not. I’m not in the business of telling children their dreams won’t come true after all the work they’ve put in. There are players 'I’m skeptical on who may have a longer list of to-dos to work on, but that is a very different concept than their talents weakening the draft pool relative to other years.

On the whole, I’m on the record stating that this year’s draft isn’t a one-horse race to me. In fact, looking back at many recent drafts, you could argue that almost any recent draft isn’t a one-horse race, and drafts like 2023 are the exception rather than the mean. Beyond my first few names on the list, the draft opens up significantly. There are some players commonly ranked quite high who I frankly just think are much more part of the mix, largely because of the concerns around their deficiencies, but they certainly aren’t ineffective. In the mix with them are some highly intelligent and hard working names that might slip through the cracks. It doesn’t take very long for me to respond to the “who shoud we draft” question with “well, I don’t know, what do you value and how do you want your NHL team to play?” and there being a pool of about 40 players to pluck a name from. Past that, I dunno, just take the guys who you like and pray to Lisan Al-Ghaib. Who am I looking for? Players who drive results, put defenders on their heels, and make their linemates lives easier. If they end up and energy forward or a defenseman going out there and plugging holes for 12 minutes a night? Great! I always work from the perspective of NHL playoff hockey and the required traits there and work backwards. Not “who cross-checks the most per 60 minutes” but more, who can you pat on the back to go over the boards, and know you’re getting a 100% competitive effort out of them to play hard, play fast, play as a team, and score some god damned goals, even if you have to get greasy or clever to do it. All of the above is ideal, but past a certain point, I’m looking for players who do not sit back, do not rely on opponent mistakes and rely on their own compete level and their ability to drive play out of their zone and into the offensive zone, with actual offensive output being a nice bonus. Size to me, is not nearly as much of a factor. It just changes the necessary equation of what a player needs to do in order to be successful, and that goes at both extreme ends of that spectrum. Hopefully that helps you sift through and understand my logic a little more.

At this point you probably want me to just get to the dang list of children so fine, here we go.

---

Tier 1 - The Puppeteer Quadrumvirate

The first tier is pretty broad, but when all is said and done, these guys all could bring some amount of comparable value. Celebrini is of course the top of the heap and the name I’d be calling first, but losing the lottery is not the disaster some fans paint it out to be, at least not this year. All four of these players bring unique, high potential styles of play that any team would be happy to have more of.

• #1 | Macklin Celebrini | C | Boston University | Jan Rnk (1)

  What’s old is new again, and Macklin Celebrini remains at 1 on my board. One of the most well-rounded players at the high end of a draft in a while, Celebrini just goes out and plays really strong hockey. He times his plays well, chips in defensively in useful ways, and just knows how to score in a variety of ways in projectable areas of the ice. He’s a very strong shooter, but his playmaking goes hand-in-hand in many ways. He’s precise and surgical, intense, and shows great potential, especially if he gets a bit quicker to escape pressure more effectively. He’s likely at 1 in June, and whoever gets him is likely getting a great building block, if not a player you build a franchise around.

• #2 | Ivan Demidov | W | SKA St. Petersburg | Jan Rnk (4)

  Up from 4th, Ivan Demidov is now the 2nd player on my board. I just love tis guy. The skill level is elite. The confidence is beyond elite. He slips passes into scoring areas at rates that is higher than anyone I’ve tracked and he absolutely deserved to play tougher competition than the MHL. In my tracked data he’s off the charts and absolutely dominant. If you like fun, Demidov is your guy, and he’s improved on his ability to get up the ice quickly and make plays faster than he was when his game was a bit more problematic. In my view this is going to be the key to his future success, and how he adapts to better competition is going to be the do-or-die side to Demidov’s NHL game. If he can be an elite-level distributor with good timing and using his confidence properly, the potential is nearly limitless.

• #3 | Berkley Catton | C | Spokane Chiefs | Jan Rnk (2)

  This category was named The Puppeteer Quadrumvirate and nobody exemplifies this better than Berkly Catton of the Spokane Chiefs. Catton is a quick-thinking skilled centre who has a brilliant feel for the game, pushing and pulling the puck into open lanes, changing directions and pace to create important space to work with all over the ice. I don’t see him being as much of a goal scorer as his 50 goals might indicate, but his playmaking ability is undeniable. He’s a player who makes everyone around him look better, and pairing him with finishers will help them put production on the board that they need. He is one of the most enjoyable players in the entire draft that may lack the physical presence many bigger players may have, but his tactical and surgical approach to the game is hard to ignore. He’s a smart defender, but play in his own end is an area of potential improvement. His sense of timing is strong, but he can be caught too still to be much of a factor, and his physical play is not a strong point. His benefits come as a forechecker and quarterback in offensive transitions. He’s efficient, clever, and is the kind of player I’d always be looking to add.

• #4 | Cayden Lindstrom | C/RW | Medicine Hat Tigers | Jan Rnk (3)

  Lindstrom has finally returned for the WHL playoffs after missing over half the season, and he doesn’t seem to have missed too much of a beat. Lindstrom is the total package of tools and will be a very interesting player to track over the years. He’s tall, already 215 pounds, skates with fluidity and strength, and has very good skill to get through traffic and into open areas. He’s highly projectable to the NHL but he lacks a certain level of awareness and selflessness that could unlock a tremendous amount of potential. He’s a highly accurate passer in lower volumes, preferring to be more of a playmaker in scoring areas than in scoring areas, and his potential as a diversely talented forward that projects very well to the NHL is hard to ignore. The more time you take to develop him, the better off you’ll probably be. There is a ton of talent to work with, but some rough spots that hold back his potential somewhat. There is definitely a universe where he’s right up there with one of the best

Tier 2 - Roller Coaster Rides and Costco Hot Dogs

Every draft there’s a point where things drop off a little bit and a relatively large group of players that bring all kinds of different styles and possibilities depending on your preferences are available. In these cases, I dread being the teams at the top end of this range and would rather trade down and pick volume over everything, and this year is the same but cranked to 11. Some of these guys project to me like a Costco hot dog. Everyone likes them, they’re reliable, you can’t live on them, but you really appreciate it when you have one. Others are complete shots in the dark with high potential and ups and downs that will have to be managed and navigated. This group probably all ends up in somewhat similar spots in a given lineup performing different tasks, but there could be a few players in this range who really pop off over the next few years. Want my 18th ranked player at 5? Sure, I can be swayed based on what is valued and what it is that we’re looking for, but this would be my order of preference navigating this tough group.

• #5 | Alfons Freij | Växjö Lakers HC J20 | LSD | Jan Rnk (12)

  Freij this high is really only because I watch other players and bump them below him. Time after time, I’m given no reason for him to be moved down, and time after time I’m seeing reasons to lower other players below him. His skating, deception, skill level and quickness are elite. His ability to think creatively to make space for himself and create diversions is unique in this class. He generates offense without relying on point shots and d-to-d passing, able to create passing lanes and push into the offensive zone. He loses physical battles, sure, but he maintains possession and stick checks so well in transition that you almost never notice. There’s a real Sam Girard-type quality to his game, with excellent edges and creativity to push play offensively. He’s probably ranked too high on my list, but at the same time, I can’t move him below the names below his, even after watching him many times this season in different uniforms. I love him, he is my boy, and I remain extremely optimistic about his potential as a premier modern defenseman with great offensive potential.

• #6 | Adam Jiricek | HC Plzeň | LHD | Jan Rnk (5)

  I may be one of a dwindling group, but I still believe, dangit. I think Jiricek is all potential, and I do admit his Czech pro league play indicated that he was physically outmatched, but his World Junior performance was strong, his 4-Way mobility is arguably the best in the draft, and every time I watch him, I can see something really impressive with Jiricek. There could be offensive potential to build on and years of calm, patient development overseas would do him very well in my view. He seemed uncomfortable with the pace and physicality of the top division in Czechia, but that isn’t an easy league to play in for a teenager. He’s a tough projection, but I’m faithful that he’ll work his way into the middle of an NHL lineup someday.

• #7 | Zeev Buium | Univ. of Denver | LHD | Jan Rnk (6)

  I’ve been a big fan of Zeev Buium all year, but I do admit there are some questions about his projection. I love the calm, calculated but skilled approach he brings. His ability to bait and deceive forecheckers is high end, the puck protection and evasion in the offensive zone is impressive and he finds a way to be effective everywhere on the ice. There’s a big part of me that feels he should be a bit lower, but replace him with whom? This range is all very close and I could be swayed any number of ways. Buium’s physical play and quickness to chase loose pucks and close wide gaps is a work in progress, but he’s a calculated gunslinger with the puck and has been impressive every game I’ve seen over the last couple years.

• #8 | Artyom Levshunov | Michigan State Univ. | RHD | Jan Rnk (9)

  Someone on the show asked what player I’ve come the furthest on since the beginning of the season, and Levshunov is the easiest answer I could think of. While I don’t see him as the top tier defender of the draft many do, I certainly think there’s a strong NHL role there as a defensive stopper with a bit of an offensive size. Levshunov may need some improvements to his lateral gap closures as he can lose physical battles chasing contact from a distance, or just plain get beat by faster players. That said, he’s a hulking and fluid skater who has great moments of puck movement and short range pass vision. I feel there’s a strong NHL floor for Levshunov, even if his offense may not project extremely well as-is. He’s a defender that shows a clear capability and willingness to defend, and with time, he could become a solid rock on the back end of an NHL team with some intriguing pass-centric transition play.

• #9 | Trevor Connelly | Tri-City Storm | LW | Jan Rnk (14)

  Every game I see of Connelly I go through a range of emotions and thoughts. There are some truly, truly high end moments with him, and in terms of raw quickness, skill, and determination, Connelly can be right up at the top of the class at times. At other times I’ve found him a bit careless with his shot selection and pass selection. He clearly loves to have the puck on his stick, but sometimes that love goes too far. He can skate into unwinnable situations or bring puck into low scoring areas and put soft attempts on net, but the potential is tantalizing. Slot pass rates are strong, and his offensive transition numbers are great. He’s heavily relied up on with Tri-City to quarterback pucks up the ice and he does so effectively, and very often. Could he go higher than this? It’s possible. Could he slip a bit for a few different reasons? I could see that as well, but the talent is clearly there, and with some guidance, higher quality linemates, and time, there could be quite the offensive leaning winger here one day.

• #10 | Tij Iginla | Kelowna Rockets | LW | Jan Rnk (21)

  One of those players who carries a certain level of clear projectability that is tough to ignore in this draft class, Tij Iginla is just such a rock solid hockey player around the ice. I know that isn’t the most detailed analysis you’ve probably heard, but there just isn’t an area where Iginla truly shows weakness, and his strengths are diverse and solid. You can look at his goal totals and think he’s a triggerman, but you would be mistaken. Iginla’s offesive game is well-rounded, trying to create offense both for himself and linemates in scoring areas, with solid but not spectacular offensive threat metrics, and a high rate of shot attempt creation while on the ice. His ability to catch pucks in motion and carry momentum across bluelines and find pathways through opponents at a strong pace. He’s determined, quick on his feet, skilled, and more selfless than his raw production would indicate. It will be interesting if his intense, attacking style with the puck translates to the NHL, but there is plenty to fall back on and develop with Iginla, and he’s worked his way up my board one slot at a time this year.

• #11 | Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | Mora IK | RW | Jan Rnk (7)

  Brandsegg-Nygård comes in a bit later, but I could easily be swayed to look at him a bit earlier. A highly intelligent power forward that I believe is well tailored to the modern NHL, Brandsegg-Nygård is a careful and accurate passer, an annoying physical presence both on and off the puck, a tactical defender, and a very practical applicator of the skill level he possesses. He makes one move around a defender because that’s all that’s necessary to get a scoring chance. He pre-plans his puck protection down low and finds ways through pressure. He has some creative small area passing work at times. Since the World Juniors, he has scored 16 of the 22 points he’s scored all season in HockeyAllsvenskan, and has really found a level of confidence and resilience that I was hoping to see more of. There are a lot of positives to his game, and not a whole ton of negatives that really bother me. Is he a top line winger? Not unless he’s the complimentary physical piece, but a very useful forward up and down your lineup and on special teams is entirely possible.

• #12 | Liam Greentree | Windsor Spitfires | RW | Jan Rnk (17)

  If there is an award for Most Interesting Player With One Critical Flaw, I think it might go to Greentree. If he carried a bit more quickness and proactivity on the puck, he may very well be right up near the top of my ranking this year. Greentree is extremely difficult to knock off the puck, extremely difficult to knock out of rush lanes, and extremely difficult to prevent from finding some way to create a scoring chance. The guy has been an extremely high end offensive transition middleman, one of the most threatening shooters in my database, and has very high end rates of slot pass attempts. There really isn’t a ton for him to work with in Windsor this year, but he’s clearly doing what he can. Could his lower pace, high resilience style of play translate? Sure! Is he going to be a massive producer in the NHL? I have no idea but I think it’s possible with some level of improvement to the pace of his game. He invites contact and adapts to it extremely well, but to me that’s a dangerous game to play long term. He makes it work though, and unlike almost anyone I’ve tracked over the years. There is that “ok, how is going to get out of this one…. oh, like that, nice” vibe to Greentree, and it happens extremely often.

• #13 | Teddy Stiga | U.S. National U18 Team | C/LW | Jan Rnk (28)

  Another player I may have ranked a bit high, but I just keep bumping other players down behind him, Stiga has been impressive every single game I’ve seen of him. He has ridiculous rates of offensive creation off his own stick and for others, he’s got a heck of a motor and intensity level that earns him more offensive zone turnovers generated than many in my database. His rate of shot assists in dangerous areas so far is higher than many players rates of shot assists from anywhere. He’s a guy who likely goes undervalued because of his size, but over time in college just turns into a menace of a hockey player that teams kick themselves for not taking a chance on. He drives such great excellent results without having to float around waiting for someone else to do the dirty work. He has the quickness and willingness to get involved defensively and actually pulls many of these plays off effectively. I’ve been pleasantly surprised with him more and more this season and could be great value in the 2024 Draft.

• #14 | Sam Dickinson | London Knights | LHD | Jan Rnk (15)

  At this point my brain is so scrambled trying to figure out Sam Dickinson that I may just have to accept that I am undervaluing him and may look silly. I’ve seen him a ton this year, and far more often than not, I’ve seen more things that concern me than excite me. I love his puck protection in the offensive zone, I like his ability to time stick checks and quickly turn pucks back offensively, and I do see a lot of potential somewhere in there. On the flipside, he’s a low volume shooter and shot assist generator at 5v5 for a player at almost a point per game, he’s turning over about 2/3 of the offensive transitions he attempts and is extremely pass-heavy in that regard, and I have found Dickinson to be a much more laid-back, passive and positional defender more often than I’d like. The weird thing is that I find is strongest moments are carrying and moving pucks on his own, but he very rarely does it. No matter which way you slice it, the data isn’t spectacular, and I’ve found my viewings of him to be somewhat underwhelming… until they’re not. He’s one of these weird players this year that I still have trouble getting a read on, and remain somewhat conservative relative to most.

• #15 | Cole Eiserman | U.S. National U18 Team | LW | Jan Rnk (11)

  Speaking of scrambled brains, Eiserman has done the same for me this year. I do believe he’s improved over the year with his shot selection and picking his spots to be physical and I am less concerned with his game than I was. Why is he lower than where I had him? I don’t really have a good answer for you! I do think there are still issues with shot selection and his ability to drive play at 5v5 is a bit mixed and often reliant on others. That said, I think Eiserman’s playmaking and creativity with his passing in the offensive zone is understated. He can make bewildering decisions, float around a bit too often waiting for breakouts, chase physical play when he has no business doing so, and is a somewhat leaky defensive rush player, but I’ll still have my eyes trained on him often down the stretch. He’s still in my 2nd tier and if you want a raw, but highly talented shooter with signs of something more there, I could be swayed to take him significantly higher than this spot.

• #16 | Igor Chernyshov | Dynamo Moskva | Jan Rnk (19) | LW

  Chernyshov has spent essentially the whole season with Dynamo Moskva in the KHL and hasn’t really looked out of place there. To me, he projects as a talented and creative complimentary offensive piece of the puzzle. Rarely taking low percentage shots, doing a solid job of generating shot assists, and having great transition involvement and solid efficiency rates, he’s a strong profile for a KHL player. His defensive play is more positional and timing-focused rather than intensity-based, but he does fine in that area, breaking cycles an generating offensive zone turnovers at a good rate. I do worry about what role Chernyshov plays in the NHL exactly where he finds huge success, as he lacks a certain level of quickness thanks to a bit of an inefficient skating stride, but he’s a good puck protector at this level and is rarely giving up on his possessions. He’s a bit of an offensive blank slate with a diverse set of “good but not great” tools, but there is definitely a lot to work with. A few years in Russia could do Chernyshov well so long as he keeps himself in the KHL and an offensive zone focused dual-threat scorer is not out of the equation down the road.

• #17 | Luke Misa | Mississauga Steelheads | LW/C | Jan Rnk (16)

  I flip back and forth on Misa so much you may as well call me Flapjack. I adore the pace and intensity he brings to the game. He’s an elite offensive transition player. He’s determined, battles hard, and is equal parts playmaker and shooter. He’s a fearless player that I think people overlook because of how he’s more speed and quickness oriented than puck protection oriented, and does look pretty small out there admittedly. If you ask me though, I would love to see if this is a motivator for Misa out there. He certainly doesn’t float around and wait for things to happen. He’s trying to make things happen often, at least offensively. I admit his defensive results aren’t great, but offsetting that with excellent forechecking data and very strong offensive production metrics relaxes me a bit. I love this guy, he goes hard, and he should see people questioning him as a motivator, because he certainly carries the on-ice mindset and work rate that could prove them wrong. Creative, slick, and high effort, Misa brings a lot to the table that could bring great value much later than where I have him ranked.

• #18 | Zayne Parekh | Saginaw Spirit | D | Jan Rnk (22)

  There is no player I have ever tracked in my years of watching hundreds of performances a year like Zayne Parekh. He is one of the most extreme and polarized players I think I’ve ever seen. He’s the most productive draft-eligible defender in the OHL in decades and that can’t be ignored. Exploring things a bit more, my issues with Parekh lie in projecting him to the NHL. I know there are those that think his defensive shortcomings are overblown, but I can’t ignore what I’ve seen and tracked. If he’s not using his skating to track down errant breakouts, he’s not very involved in defensive rushes, and when he is, he’s often leaky and can get turned around and left behind. His defensive play along the boards is a mixed bag at best and I can’t set the number of times I’ve seen play not go his way outside of the offensive zone. The skill level and deceptive footwork along the offensive blueline is top of the class, but I also can’t help but downgrade a player, especially a defenseman, whose best traits come out once the puck is in the offensive zone. Parekh’s passing in transition is very hit or miss, and he very rarely strays from a low pace pass-first style of puck possession. He’s a massive shot volume player, and often from the perimeter which is difficult to project. That said, his ability to draw pressure and open space is very high end, his skill level is obvious, and I can’t deny that he doesn’t at least deserve to come up in discussions involving any of the players in this tier. I just can’t think of an NHL player that leans this heavily offensively and plays like Parekh does. I’ve heard Evan Bouchard, but he’s more of a puck carrier with an elite level shot from the point, and even Bouchard carries warts that makes fans and coaches crazy at times. Parekh is going to be fascinating to keep track on. There have been a ton of CHL defenders with a ton of production that have come and gone from the NHL over the last 5-10 years and after exploring those players, I have a hunch on what they have in common, and I can’t help but be concerned that Parekh may fall into that category as well. I’ve watched a ton of him. At times, he’s very impressive, but I simply can’t set aside the plays that Parekh falls short on and hope things work out.

Tier 3 - A Bunch of Neat Dudes and Home Run Swings

The separation between tiers 2 and 3 is extremely marginal, especially with the top few names, but I feel as though this group brings a smidge less in terms of potential value, or likelihood of getting where they could possibly get. A lot of these players are highly intelligent players that are still developing the finer points of the game on the ice, which could help boost them up the list a bit, especially the very young ones. A few come of to me as NHL role players down the lineup. They have a job, and they do the job well. Physical defenders, complimentary energy players, bottom six minutes eaters, etc. It’s a curious group of players I’m willing to gamble on and players that show a good amount of projectability, albeit in somewhat limited breadth.

• #19 | Andrew Basha | Medicine Hat Tigers | F | Jan Rnk (10)

  I go back and forth on Basha almost every month. In terms of raw, pure pace, skill, and quickness, Basha might be right up at the top of the class. The issues lie with the issues commonplace with undersized forwards. When he has space to play with or a lane to exploit, he’s magic. Some of the most impressive single sequences I have seen from any player this year have come from Basha. The rest of the time though, it’s easy to miss Basha for stretches. He isn’t much of a physical factor with or without the puck, and his offensive creation metrics trail many players in my first round in aggregate. That said, Basha is an electric player. He’s quick to accelerate, quick with his hands, and uses quick thinking to jump the puck into open space and pierce through defenses. When it works, it’s awesome, but Basha will need time to gain some physical resilience on the puck under heavy pressure and find ways to strip puck and get off the boards a bit better. There’s a ton of upside for a flashy creative complementary playmaker in a top six, but there likely isn’t a bottom six NHL player you fall back on if things don’t break right.

• #20 | Anton Silayev | Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod | D | Jan Rnk (13)

  Silayev is the other ultimate unicorn and the first of the home run swings in this list. He is as raw as it gets. Tall, decently built out already, and a highly fluid skater on his inside edges helps him in many situations, but basically everything else is hit or miss. Granted, he improved significantly from where he was at the start of the year. The tracked data is pretty clear as to what he is at this point. A safe and efficient passer, not a ton of offensive quarterbacking and not great at it when he tries, and lower than average defensive involvement but efficient when involved with a physical side. Is there more to be extrapolated? With more skills training settling pucks, and more experience to quicken his on-ice thinking in the defensive zone could help. There is a solid chance he could be a middle pair defense-first guy who can throw a good hit, but I value what I see now pretty heavily, and Silayev is a huge work in progress. Literally. Luckily he’ll have all the time he needs with one of the few Russian programs clearly willing to push young players beyond their development curves.

• #21 | Dominik Badinka | Malmö Redhawks | D | Jan Rnk (33)

  Slowly one step at a time climbing up my list, Badinka is the brand of defenseman I’ve grown to appreciate over the years. Badinka is a guy I’ve been watching and enjoying since his Jokerit days, and seeing him move up and snag a full time SHL position has pleased me greatly. Badinka is the embodiment of modern defense-first player, but don’t count out the offense he has generated through hard stretch passing and a hard shot from the point. Badinka is a tall, fluid skating defender who covers ice well in stride, monitors gaps well, and erases puck carriers effectively. His data profile looks eerily similar to Anton Silayev, but you may be able to get him a round later. He’s an effective breakout generator through his passing and while I don’t see him winning Norris Trophies or playing 25 minutes a night very easily, he’s a player who could eat solid minutes while participating in enabling offense for other players with the vision and shot he carries.

• #22 | Tomas Galvas | Bílí Tygři Liberec | D | Jan Rnk (31)

  Here we have a home run swing. I’ve really liked Galvas most of this season, and to me he’s improved over the year especially after his impressive run at the World Juniors. Galvas is a little small, but he carries high end footwork and quickness that helps him cover ice extremely well, closing gaps and being involved defensively very often. An equally effective stick checker as he is positional defender, Galvas drives efficient transition data in both directions, with some very interesting offensive threat potential that rivals many high end defenders in this draft not playing against pro competition. He’s confident, shifty, skilled, and highly mobile, but defensive play in his own end is a softer area. He does get removed from play and beat positionally in scoring areas and will need to use his feet to stick to open men a bit better. To me, the good outweighs the bad, and players higher than Galvas on my prior list seemed to be ranked a bit too highly for me. He’ll need time to become a truly high end skill+skating combo player in order for it to work, but he could be a highly dynamic and crafty defender if things go his way.

• #23 | Nikita Artamonov | Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod | RW/LW | Jan Rnk (8)

  Artamonov has dropped significantly for me since January after watching him a few more times. I respect the heck out of the work rate and the smarts he brings to the table. He’s selfless, times passes well, has good vision, even under pressure along the boards, is one of the most involved transition players I’ve tracked this year in both directions for a forward, and driving good results there. Why the drop? Well, I love the kid, but there isn’t a ton of projectable consistent offense there that makes me think he’s anything more than a workhorse complimentary energy player down an NHL lineup. His shot selection leaned heavily in the wrong direction, he had low pass volumes, lower in threatening areas, very low rates of shot assists, even when factoring in how often Nizhny Novgorod was getting pummeled and wasn’t producing a ton of offense. Artamonov is a player where the whole time you think “this is pretty great” but that next “and then what happens” when it comes to offense just falls short far more often than it comes together. I still have him ranked above consensus it seems, and I think he’d be a great pickup if he’s a 2nd rounder, especially because I do believe there’s potential for more. As of right now, he’s a very admirable worker who drives efficient results in transition and some solid defensive numbers but lacks consistent offensive output that scouts may be looking for.

• #24 | Konsta Helenius | Jukurit | C/RW | Jan Rnk (30)

  I’ve seen Helenius about 12 times this year. I just keep going back and making sure I’m sure I think what I think. Helenius is absolutely one of the smarter, tactical players in the draft per puck touch. He capitalizes on opponent errors well which happen often in Liiga, he throws hits more than many, but the actual effectiveness of that contact is bit mixed. An efficient transition player, largely through finding space to make himself a pass target in stride and finding a quick passing option to keep the puck moving, Helenius brings plenty to the table. So why is he 10-15 slots below consensus? There isn’t much that really screams “this is what I will be good at in the NHL” with Helenius. He’s got very low pass volumes, not the best rates of completion, he struggles to get off the boards and resist tight physical pressure, he lacks quickness in close quarters and can fall off his defensive coverages, and his rate of shot assists is quite low. He makes things count when he gets the opportunity, but creating those opportunities himself in a way I can see being a major driver in the NHL as-is remains a question to me. I expect a huge U18 from him, but I’ll be paying attention to the details of his game that I’ve had concerns about to see if there’s something I’m still missing.

• #25 | Michael Hage | Chicago Steel | C | Jan Rnk (27)

  Michael Hage’s data profile is outstanding. Efficient offensive transition quarterback in every category equally. Super high rates of dangerous shooting, high rates of slot pass attempts, creating 40% of Chicago’s shot attempts on the ice, and chips in defensively where he can. I could easily be swayed to take a chance on him higher based on the skill level and determination Hage brings to the game. He’s evasive, slippery, and has neat touch on the puck to make complex passes off the boards or at weird angles look easy. The one weakness is a bit of an inefficient skating stride, flaring his feet out and a bit hunched over without the puck which limits his quickness and ability to effectively challenge puck carriers. He has good involvement defensively, but not so good efficiency. Frankly I’d rather start with that than someone who is significantly more passive in general, but it’s worth noting. I’ve got a wide range of thoughts on Hage, but many of them are positive and I think he could outperform his draft slot if he goes this late and things go well in college

• #26 | Linus Eriksson | Djurgårdens IF | C | Jan Rnk (43)

  This guy has just looked better and better since he landed himself in HockeyAllsvenskan. Similar to Helenius, he’s an intelligent positional player, finding pockets of space to work with, making well timed stick checks to close out opponent rushes. He’s a physical player as well, gets up and down the ice effectively, and factors into a ton of the limited offense that Djurgårdens put forward in my games tracked. There’s a quietly scary wrist shot locked away there that should be encouraged over time, but this one is a relatively straightforward profile where there’s a level of stability with his style of play up the middle of the ice. If you put talented scorers with Eriksson he’ll cover the defensive side of things well and get those players the puck as needed.

• #27 | John Mustard | Waterloo Black Hawks | F | Jan Rnk (25)

  What the heck is John Mustard? That might be the wrong question. The right one is “what could John Mustard be?” and the answer is one of a number of possibilities. The USHL rookie showed a ton of potential with his raw speed, the skill he pulls out at those speeds, and a lightning quick shot that put him up near the top of Waterloo’s scoring for much of the year. The problem is that it often felt like he seemed like the only player on the ice. That speed and intensity only really came out when the puck hit his stick, and his carrying efficiency in high volume was less than desirable. He certainly preferred to carry pucks, and I’d encourage that but more refinement to his puck control, timing and lane selection would help a ton. He’s one of the lowest pass rate players I’ve tracked in junior hockey, and not a particularly dependable one, with very limited shot assist rates, but there is still so much to work with here. I thought his All-American Game performance was top notch, and if he can put in 200-foot physical effort with the tools he has, and takes the next step with his speed/skill combination, he could be an excellent player up and down the ice that may lean more shot-heavy than you’d like, but it’s a dang good shot to rely on. He likely goes later than this, but I think there’s plenty of potential and the right team could get a very solid player here.

• #28 | Topias Hynninen | Jukurit | LW/C | Jan Rnk (23)

  I know I’m alone on an island with Hynninen, but I think he has just as much of a chance of being a skilled energy player in the NHL as many guys ranked around here. He’s more involved in transitions both directions than Helenius, one of the most intense stick checkers defensively of any forward I’ve tracked, doubles Helenius’ rate of shot assists, and gives it everything he’s got every shift. He catches pucks in transitions extemely well, carries his momentum into the offensive zone efficiently, and shows plenty of potential. He was more productive down the back half and the real shortcoming comes with his puck management and decisionmaking in the offensive zone. He’s got a great shot, but just doesn’t get to or chooses not to use it way too often. He’ll look off pass options and maintain possession, only to lose it, but to me, if I’m coaching him, it’s easy to work with a player who has the capability of doing a thing that doesn’t happen often to do that thing more often. So many things go his way, it’s just the “putting the puck on net and keeping possession” side of things in the OZ that is a work in progress. He fights through pressure, gets out of jams often, and showed extremely well in the Mestis games I saw that seemed to breathe a certain amount of life into his game. He won’t be at the U18s, so I expect him to continue to fly under the radar, but this is a player I easily target in the middle rounds.

• #29 | Jett Luchanko | Guelph Storm | RW/C | Jan Rnk (41)

  The 2024 NHL Draft is characterized by a ton of players who may lack the high end tools others have, but have a brilliant grasp on how to just go out and get results. Luchanko may be the pinnacle of that archetype this season. It took a while but he grew on me the more I saw little details in his game. He’s very young for the draft class, but drove ridiculous offensive numbers in my data, a least to this point. He positions himself excellently on breakouts, makes brilliantly times passes in transition often, and keeps his offensive game simple and effective. He isn’t a super common shooter relative to his linemates but he never takes low danger chances. His volumes from scoring areas are huge, largely from tips, battles, rebounds and following up on loose pucks in space. He’s constantly around or going to the net and he’s only gotten better and better results as the season goes on. By end of year he may very well be higher on my board, but he does lack a bit of quickness and off-puck intensity in his game that keeps him out of many defensive situations. He’s a fascinating case study who brings a lot to the table, and his skill development from here could take him a ways. Considering he’s almost a year younger than some top prospects this year, he’s got plenty of runway to work with.

• #30 | Stian Solberg | Vålerenga | D | Jan Rnk (45)

  Speaking of players who have grown on me, Stian Solberg! Early in the year he came off as a safe, stable physical defender, but his impressive World Junior performance made me rethink some things and go back with a different outlook. His possession numbers aren’t great, and he isn’t a particularly common shooter, but he is definitely the most physical defender I’ve seen this year. When he makes contact in transition, it works. You aren’t getting through him. The guy is a rock on skates with a good set of feet under him, and seems to have a good grasp of the layout of the ice, making good reads more often than not. It’s the late first round, and I think this guy could eat minutes, and kill penalties with potentially a bit of offensive pop tucked away. The focus though is the combination of mobility and physicality that you can’t ignore, so consider me a converted fan.

• #31 | Beckett Sennecke | Oshawa Generals | RW | Jan Rnk (35)

  Sennecke is one of those guys where I still really don’t know what I think. There are long stretches where he’s a low-pace, simple puck mover who brings a straightforward but effective approach, finding ways to create chances for linemates under pressure and showing projectable traits to the NHL is some fashion. Then once in a while you see him get in full stride, catch a puck in motion, do some crazy skill move or skate-y spin on the fly, and put some kind of impressive play together. His tracked data is largely very positive through it all, but some of his performances have been far more intriguing than others. In the modern physical grinding but fast NHL, there are jobs that Sennecke can do, especially when you consider the late growth spurt it seems he hasn’t grown into. He’ll probably go higher than this, and I’m not against the idea considering how projectable his game is. How much of an impact player will he be remains to be seen but he’s guy who has looked impressive in isolated moments many times.

• #32 | Daniil Ustinkov | GC Küsnacht Lions | D | Jan Rnk (24)

  Closing out the first round, Ustinkov is a player I’ve had a keen eye on for two seasons now. The epitome of smart, stable defending and puck movement, Ustinkov may not jump off the scoresheet, but he’s a rock solid player that shows wisps and signs of something more tucked away. He’s an incredibly efficient transition player, rarely taking too much risk and giving himself too much to worry about, timing his passes extremely well and maintaining possession extremely well. There just isn’t much defending he has to do in his own end because of how efficient he is off the puck. He reads errant passes and breakouts well to fetch loose pucks in the neutral zone and makes smart, safe plays to get play turned around again, and the flashes of skill and quickness, especially at the Swiss League level gives plenty of signs of potential. He can get beat by faster players and I would certainly want to work on his backwards mobility and strength to push players away from the dot line a bit better, but there’s potential here. Ustinkov is currently with a great program in Switzerland and a pro hockey mainstay already, so three-ish more seasons over there with plenty of international experience should do him well.

Tier 4 - Spin the Wheel of Destiny

This group is just plain fun. Some inconsistent but highly skilled players, some players who provide great supplemental help without a ton of projection, potential energy players down your lineup, and some home run swings on players you might be able to snag towards the end of the draft. Ranges like the end of Tier 3 and the majority of this tier are why I always would encourage loading up on as many picks in the 20-64 range as you possibly can, because of all of these players, I’m willing to bet that some have just as useful an NHL career as players drafted ahead of them. Some of these players are lower pace guys that invite and adapt to heavy pressure very well which helps their projection somewhat as well. It’s a deep group with plenty going on in a variety of ways, it’ll just be a matter of priority and risk tolerance.

• #33 | Noel Fransén | Färjestad BK J20 | D | Jan Rnk (34)

  It feels like I’ve seen Fransen 40 times this year because I cannot begin to understand why he’s completely off so many lists. From what I can gather, he’s not the most mobile defender while skating backwards and heavily prefers stick checks from range rather than close quarters defending, and blocking defensive transitions is a bit leaky for him right now, but other than that, I just can’t wrap my head around it. Färjestad is consistently one of the most boring teams at both ends of anyone I’ve tracked this year. That said, Fransen factors into a ton of their offense as you can imagine, with forward-like offensive transition involvement and high efficiency. A quick shot from the point leads to a lot of his offense, but he doesn’t use it tremendously often. This is a calculated, mobile and creative defenseman with strong metrics almost everywhere you look. Considering where he’s rated to go, a team could get just as good a bet as any that this player could turn out to be a steal one day.

• #34 | Lucas Pettersson | MoDo Hockey J20 | C | Jan Rnk (26)

  Pettersson drops a bit, even though his production increased as I expected in softer competition down the stretch. He’s a player with some magical moments of speed bursts and evasive skill, with very good playmaking metrics, but I’m always left wanting more out of him. He’s passive off the puck and not very effective when he does get involved, he drives up the ice well, but needs others to find him in motion. There is plenty of talent there, and he’s taken over shifts here and there, but this is a high upside, low floor player to me and I’m a bit skeptical after quite a few viewings.

• #35 | Miguel Marques | Lethbridge Hurricanes | F | Jan Rnk (32)

  I’ll admit at time of writing I haven’t seen Marques in a while, but there is plenty of good evidence that you have a highly skilled, highlight-capable puck carrier here. Huge rates of slot passing and great offensive transition numbers, Marques is a player who in isolated moments has viral GIF-capable skill, but can also disappear into the ether of the game for stretches. In the offensive zone is where his game really shines though, finding seams and open men in dangerous spots more than many in my database and enabling others more than taking too many chances himself. He may end up a bit higher on my list again down the road, but there’s a level of uncertainty with his projection at higher levels. If he can apply his skill level at higher pace and get some better scoring chances for himself more often, there’s plenty of potential when combined with his playmaking ability.

• #36 | Ollie Josephson | Red Deer Rebels | F | Jan Rnk (NR)

  From a player I hadn’t seen yet in January to a top 40 slot seems crazy, but Josephson is right up my alley. Excellent possession results, excellent transition quarterbacking ability, brilliant results passing in general, a factor in well over 50% of his team’s shot attempts, and highly involved and efficient defensively. He’s relentless, applying pressure quicky and effectively all around the ice and causing turnovers with his stick checks extremely well. He’s near the top of the database for forwards when it comes to physical contact along the boards and forechecks result in offensive zone turnovers. He’s an analytical darling in almost every way outside of generating truly dangerous scoring chances for linemates. He gets his chances from dangerous spots well, so improving his shot should improve his production, and finding ways to thread more passes into scoring areas would improve things as well. I always have faith in players who have pace in their game and positives pretty much everywhere, especially quarterbacking rushes and chipping in defensively. Basically everything goes right for Josephson except putting the puck in the net, but he’s certainly showing all the signs of that improving over time.

• #37 | Emil Hemming | TPS | RW | Jan Rnk (18)

  Hemming has fallen somewhat, but I still think there’s a neat player there. He’s got pace in his game, pursues puck carriers well, has a physical edge, a bit of skill and a heck of a mid-range release. He’s very much a catch-and-release player though and is often not much of a factor in play until he is. Plenty of areas of his game are perfectly fine, which for a player playing professional competition is notable. I can see a player who can be a secondary power play shooting threat and a complimentary power winger that should project fine to the NHL. It also should be noted that TPS is not putting a ton of pucks on net, but Hemming is responsible either for over 45% of their attempts, largely through his own shooting, they’re just often from a distance, when he has the strength, pace and skill to push deeper into scoring areas.

• #38 | Herman Träff | HV71 J20 | LW/RW | Jan Rnk (49)

  Träff has been on my radar for two seasons now iand I’m pleasantly surprised with how he’s evolved over this year. At first there were concerns as he wasn’t pushing play as much as he could with the size, intensity and skill level I saw last year, but he was scoring goals with a lightning quick release through traffic. Since earning an SHL call-up, Träff has shown to be a very well-rounded physical winger who can fill in up the middle of the ice if need be. He’s aggressive, intense, physical, and has a great touch of the puck for a big man. He’s highly responsible for a lot of HV71s offense, even in the SHL largely through his mid to long-range shooting. Similar to Hemming, I’d love to see more willingness for Träff to get right to the net and generate chances through using his frame and strength, but there are many positive signs in his game.

• #39 | Carter Yakemchuk | Calgary Hitmen | D | Jan Rnk (44)

  I really have had a tough time with Yakemchuk this year. He’s one of the players I’ve logged the most data on, and the results so far are extremely mixed. The high points of his game are admittedly high, but the issue comes from a similar critique of Zayne Parekh where I’m not sure how I feel about defensemen whose best assets are displayed when the puck is already in the offensive zone. Yakemchuk has the skill level and willingness to bait defenders and make them look awfully silly to step up off the half wall and put himself in scoring position and rifle shots past goaltenders. The issue is getting the puck there in the first place. Yakemchuk is a player who sits back quite often defensively, and struggles to consistently get breakouts started with clean possession. Maybe I’m just seeing all the wrong games so far, but I’ve seen him as high as the top 5 and I just can’t see how I would put him there. As one of the oldest players in the draft, his timeline is significantly shorter than many others in this class who are up to a full year older. If his non-forwards skating can improve to better close gaps and play physically more effectively, there could be a solid defender here, but he seems like a player part of the much larger group that could fill in the middle of an NHL lineup if things go well.

• #40 | Sacha Boisvert | Muskegon Lumberjacks | C | Jan Rnk (20)

  This is yet another player I’ve gone back and forth on all season. Boisvert has some amazing moments of skill, slip passes and shooting, but so often during the game he just isn’t much of a factor. He’s barely involved in transition an unreliable when he is involved defensively, but uses his skill and body to protect pucks well and stay efficient offensively. He’s got a great shot release from mid-range, and as a complimentary offensive centre, there’s tons of potential with Boisvert. There’s almost a Pierre-Luc Dubois-esque profile here. Sometimes he’s there and you really notice him, sometimes he’s not doing much and leaves you wanting. I love the ups, but there are a lot of shruggables with Boisvert.

• #41 | Cole Beaudoin | Barrie Colts | C | Jan Rnk (47)

  This guy is going to be annoying in the NHL one day if he gets there. Always active up and down the ice, willing to drop the gloves and get his hands dirty, goes to the net, funnels pucks to the net both on the rush and off the boards, and drives quite a lot of the offense for Barrie while he’s on the ice. Efficient in transition, he’s right up there with the best northbound puck carriers in the draft. He’s an interesting player without a whole lot of real downsides, but it’ll be a matter of how much strength and speed he puts on over the next few years to play a role down an NHL lineup. Lots to really like, not much to love or dislike, Beadoin projects to me as a player fans could love, and a player who really comes alive in the fast, physical, and insane Stanley Cup Playoffs.

• #42 | Marek Vanacker | Brantford Bulldogs | LW | Jan Rnk (74)

  Vanacker has grown on me over the year the more I watch him. He’s really ramped up the pace of his thinking and his ability to corral pucks, get a view of the ice and make some kind of play in scoring areas. He leans more playmaker in the games I’ve seen, and he’s often not much of a puck carrier thanks to a bit of a lack of speed and pace, but he works around it well. Battling along the boards, snagging pucks and putting them in front or sneaking passes across the crease, Vanacker just goes out and plays the game well. He’s resilient, and highly intelligent with his pass receptions and pass creation in transition, leading to some very high volume and efficiency metrics offensively. I dig him and think he projects decently, and he could believably go quite a bit higher than where I have him, but I’ll have to check him out a few more times before I put him there myself.

• #43 | Fyodor Avramov | Kapitan Stupino | LW | Jan Rnk (46)

  Avamov caught my eye watching another team as a big, skilled, physical winger who had multiple rushes ending in a lightning quick release. In the tracking work, he’s one of the most physical forwards tracked, with perfectly balanced dual threat offensive metrics. He can get a head of steam going and power his way up the ice with great puck carrying metrics. With huge offensive output on a team at the bottom of the MHL’s Gold Division, Avramov is a bet on plenty of great tools to work around in a variety of areas.

• #44 | Nathan Villeneuve | Sudbury Wolves | C | Jan Rnk (80)

  Villeneuve has grown on me over the season, regardless of the recent suspension. An intense, high-pace player on both sides of the puck and has improved his offensive output after a bit of a slow start, Villeneuve is constantly hounding puck carriers with great forechecking metrics and stick checking results. Distributing pucks to linemates has been a strong area as well. He gets plenty of torque behind his wrist shots especially as a catch and release shooter, and I’d like to see him use his physical side to get pucks to the net a bit more than he does.

• #45 | Yegor Graf | SKA-1946 St. Petersburg | C | Jan Rnk (37)

  Ivan Demidov’s centre down the stretch, Yegor Graf is a player who I believe is a longshot, but brings a bit of the same things said about Ollie Josephson. While he doesn’t quite create as much offense as Josephson, Graf is a great combination of speed and skill and is jumping into play on both sides of the puck, especially in transition. He’s not much of a physical threat, and using skill to get through traffic in the offensive zone to penetrate into scoring areas hasn’t really happened, which limits his potential. That said, he’s a great puck mover and pesky forechecker with a great work rate and may be worth a nice swing late in the draft.

• #46 | Clarke Caswell | Swift Current Broncos | F | Jan Rnk (36)

  Smarts are the name of the game with Caswell. Another analytical darling in my data work, Caswell brings value almost everywhere, especially on the offensive side of the puck. He carries great shot selection, able to navigate through a defensive layer both on the rush and on a cycle, and he has some of the highest rates of slot pass attempts this year. Sometimes there can be less than ideal planning behind these attempts, but overall Caswell is a significant part of Swift Current’s offensive output when he’s on the ice. Another player who seems ranked a bit later but may be worth a swing relatively quickly.

• #47 | Jiri Tichacek | Rytíři Kladno | D | Jan Rnk (52)

  What a massive breakout season from Tichacek. Kladno has been relegated back to the 2nd division in Czechia, and in Tichacek’s last year of NHL Draft eligibility, I wonder if that’s a level he wants to return to after such a massive season. For the first stretch of the year, Tichacek factored into 50% of Kladno’s goals scored. That since has cooled to a still-ridiculous 36%. While much of his production has come on the power play, it finally seems like Tichacek is starting to use his feet and hands in conjunction with his high end release to open seams in defenses and goaltenders. The puck is going in finally, and without him, Kladno’s season would’ve been significantly worse. He’s undersized, but the mobility, skill and shot quality have all been there, but I continue to fear (or hope?) that we’re looking at the next Brad Hunt.

• #48 | Ryder Ritchie | Prince Albert Raiders | F | Jan Rnk (56)

  This is another one where we’re dealing with a player who just has a great feel for the game. He doesn’t really jump into a highlight reel tremendously often, but he consistently is moving play in the right direction, reading opposing rushes well, timing stick checks well, and efficient offensively. He’s more of a pass target and puck carrier through the neutral zone and I do have questions about how much offense he’ll be able to produce in the NHL without high end skill or intensity, but he may be a player who just doesn’t need those things in order to be successful. He drives plenty of Prince Albert’s offense while on the ice, and plenty of analytics paint him positively in my work. I think there are more exciting players ranked higher, but Ritchie plays a refined, practical and effective style that should be productive at most higher levels with time.

• #49 | Marcus Kearsey | Charlottetown Islanders | D | Jan Rnk (29)

  Speaking of undersized skilled defensemen, Marcus Kearsey makes another appearance, albeit 20 slots lower. Kearsey’s close quarters defending and physical play in the defensive zone is a real work in progress at this point. Offsetting this is a highly skilled and maniupulative gunslinger-type defenseman. He’s a major conduit for Charlottetown’s offensive transitions through some well timed and well placed passes, and has shown some really impressive skill and offensive flair that keeps you interested. An underrated area for him is, similar to Tichacek, he uses his mobility and ability to read breakouts to block offensive zone exits stick-first. Over an over he finds ways to clog up the neutral zone without having to be physical in the first place. If you get past that layer, he can be a much less impactful player, but he is definitely one to watch

• #50 | Luke Osburn | Youngstown Phantoms | D | Jan Rnk (54)

  Luke Osburn has come a long ways. I was shown him while first playing at the 16u level last season, and this season with Youngstown he’s gone from down the lineup getting 8-12 minutes a night to playing with Andrew Strathman for upwards of 20 minutes. He only improved as the season progressed, from a softer physical defenseman with plenty of skill and deception but lacking stable execution to a steady, practical applicator of skill to connect on passes. The comfort level, especially offensively has improved as well, shaking off opponents at the blueline and using his edges to create valuable space. As one of the youngest players in the draft, Osburn is a long term bet that has had quite the trajectory over the last two seasons. He’s been handed tough minutes and held his own, and the thought of where his game could be in a few years is tantalizing.

• #51 | Kuzma Voronin | Youngstown Phantoms | RW | Jan Rnk (62)

  Sticking with Youngstown, I absolutely love watching Kuzma Voronin. Raw skill and pure fun factor, Voronin is a relentless player with a great analytical profile across the board. Even physically he’s one of the more active hitters in my database, fearlessly going into battles in the corners and finishing checks in transition. The skill level and wrist shot release are truly excellent and his game is surprisingly efficient. I honestly don’t really know why he hasn’t scored more than he has outside of somewhat limited ice time and inconsistent power play experience. Looking into the details, finding the balance between applying skill and avoiding risk seems to be something that needs to be worked on. Voronin invites pressure and holds onto the puck at times and while the skill is impressive, he is prone to turnovers and creating unwinnable passing situations, but the pros outweigh the cons in my experience. He isn’t always completing his slot passes either, so improving on pre-scanning and making better plays on puck retrievals especially could help take Voronin up a notch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a significant step in the near future and put himself on the map somehow if he goes undrafted.

• #52 | Matvei Gridin | Muskegon Lumberjacks | F | Jan Rnk (NR)

  Matvei Gridin is another one of those players who has extremely impressive moments when there’s potential offense to be created. He can cross through the neutral zone gaining speed, and with a quick burst, get through a layer of defense, protect the puck well and slip passes into lanes and make something happen. A dangerous playmaker blending timing, skill and patience in the offensive zone, Gridin could be a player that sneaks up NHL boards come June. He’s a decent defender in transition but is often a player leaning more into the neutral zone defensively. There’s work to be done with generating his own scoring chances, especially with his potential danger from mid-range with a quick wrist shot he can release in stride. There has been more volume putting pucks on net from the perimeter, but the playmaking is impressive regardless, especially on the rush.

• #53 | Julius Miettinen | Everett Silvertips | C/W | Jan Rnk (NR)

  A player I had unranked until I saw some others putting his name out there. In my viewings, he has been an impressive 200-foot puck moving centre with simple and effective reads, strength to power through pressure, with speed to chase loose and pucks. A player who just seems to get it and play the game reliably in all three zones, Miettinen has been a slow burn, but the more you watch, the more you appreciate through the lack of things going too wrong with him on the ice.

• #54 | Mitch Young | Sarnia Sting | D | Jan Rnk (NR)

  Literally threw this guy in here over this past weekend, so give me a break if we’re in June and he isn’t on my list, but seeing a few games of Mitch Young after sneaking a peek in the playoffs his year, I’m really curious about this guy, even as a re-entry. Young averaged over 20 minutes a night for the Sarnia Sting and has been a standout for a daring, skilled and confident offensive game. Stepping up from the blueline with quickness, a great wrist and slap shot release, and daring defenders to challenge him with his body fakes and skill level, Young has taken a big step from last season and for a player I’ve heard very little about, he’s one that really stuck out while poking around during the OHL Playoffs.

• #55 | Veeti Väisänen | KooKoo | D | Jan Rnk (39)

  Veeti Väisänen is a curious one. While a bit undersized, he is a mobile and fluid skater with quick feet and quicker cuts to create pockets of space and passing opportunities. He uses his mobility to anticipate breakouts well and stick to leading passing options into the neutral zone. He’s a refined and capable foot+stick defender, but as with many smaller defensemen, his physical play isn’t a bright point as of yet, and it at times feels like a lack of strength takes power off of those passes in transition that come off of his quick cuts. Väisänen is a player that I believe slips and bit and may be a bit of a longshot for big NHL minutes, but the skating and smarts are there to build around for a few years and see what happens.

• #56 | Aron Kiviharju | HIFK | D | Jan Rnk (58)

  I went back and watched a pair of Kiviharju’s games from the beginning of the year before he got injured after I had bumped him down from here quite a bit, and I think I definitely overcorrected. There is still a really unique quickness to his body fakes and skill level that deceives and drags forecheckers decently well. He’s just very unproven against men at both ends, and the combination of a lack of size and a lack of high-end lateral mobility is concerning. He’s a smart tactical pass-first player who has some pivotal areas of improvement. I’m happy to change my mind after he returns from injury and perhaps plays some games before the draft.

• #57 | Kamil Bednarik | U.S. National U18 Team | C | Jan Rnk (40)

  The US U18 NTDP team this year is characterized by a deep, talented roster that scores by committee, and of the names flying a bit under the radar, Bednarik is the one I’ve enjoyed the most. I think he’ll only get better as he gets stronger over the years. A physical centre with a strong mind for the game, Bednarik makes smart, effective plays everywhere on the ice and drives offensive play through playmaking and scoring chances. He goes to the net chases down rebounds, reads breakouts and causes turnovers. He’s one of those guys who goes out and just plays good solid hockey. Most recently, he was on a line with Cole Eiserman and all game long, who was the guy starting breakouts that Eiserman ended with a shot from just inside the blueline? Bednarik. Who was going to the net and following up on those shots for dangerous chances? Bednarik. There’s lots to like and I believe he’ll at least be a very strong NCAA player over time, but he’s going to require patience and experimentation to find an NHL role.

• #57 | Adam Kleber | Lincoln Stars | D | Jan Rnk (53)

  Kleber is going to be a very interesting player to keep track of for the next few years. A tall, solidly built defender with a strong ability to cover ice with both length and a powerful stride. There’s a side of skill here and there with Kleber that jumps out when it happens, cutting inside scoring areas, making plays and creating scoring chances. This is a player who will likely need multiple years in college at Minnesota-Duluth but will be all the better for it. If he maintains the powerful, fluid stride he has and refines his skill level to be more of a dependable pass-first quarterback, there’s plenty of potential.

• #59 | Sebastian Soini | Ilves/KOOVEE | D | Jan Rnk (NR)

  A player that was unranked in January, after a few more visits, I couldn’t find too many defenders that I had ranked that I would take ahead of what I’ve seen in Soini. I focus on the highest level a player plays, and Soini has been a stable and intelligent passer with some understated finishing ability. His wrist shot is quick and he shows a willingness to pinch up and put himself in better scoring position. He’s one I haven’t seen and tracked in a bit of time like Bednarik so likely expect a bit more movement before June, but Soini’s ability to see the ice, time his passes and make some offensive plays here and there have been impressive.

• #60 | Cole Hutson | U.S. National U18 Team | D | Jan Rnk (59)

  Always mentioned as the brother of Lane, Cole Hutson has evolved and grown immensely this season into dare I say a bit more of a projectable style of defender who has begun to keep things a bit more simple, relying on strong turns on his edges and deception in transition at high pace to carve through the neutral zone with the puck. Lane is a much more daring offensive zone player, shimmying and shaking his way through the offensive zone and creating offense around the opposing net often. Cole is more of a perimeter creator that to me has specialized more in transition. Unfortunately the commonalities are in the areas of improvement to me. Where Lane was a passive, calculated but questionable defender, Cole carries similar concerns, losing battles along the boards and on defensive zone rushes, relinquishing scoring chances. That said, Hutson has improved every month when I’ve been able to check in on him, trusting his own feet and skill a bit more with the puck and playing a better possession oriented game.

• #61 | Ben Danford | Oshawa Generals | D | Jan Rnk (76)

  Ben Danford has been one of those defenders who just goes out and gets the job done. If he needs to be physical, he can be physical. If he needs to monitor a gap and time a stick check, he’ll do it. If he sees a soft offensive zone exit, he’ll challenge the breakout option quickly and be a frustrating log of a player to get past. In pockets there is also some impressive forwards skating speed and slot passing that adds a bit of a different flavor to his game. I don’t think there’s a huge NHL difference maker in Danford, but he is effective with flashes of more. Adding a bit more of a creative use of his feet with the puck to generate reliable pass lanes and options could be an interesting tweak to make. There is plenty of capability across the board with Danford.

• #62 | Charlie Elick | Brandon Wheat Kings | D | Jan Rnk (48)

  Sometimes I have to appreciate a player for what they are and what they do, even if they aren’t quite what I’m looking for when looking for a specific brand of hockey. Elick is a fast forwards skater with a heavy shot from the point, and is one of the more naturally physical mindsets of anyone in the draft. He’ll probably get to the point where an NHL team will play him because of how physical he wants his impact to be, but in my books, real dependability with the puck and defensive results leading to actual turnovers or breakouts matter. I may just not be seeing the right games but I haven’t quite seen that out of Elick on a consistent basis. Faster players squeeze through him,

• #63 | Yegor Surin | Loko Yaroslavl | C/RW | Jan Rnk (NR)

  Surin has been on my radar since last season as a potential standout from Russia for this season. What I’ve seen of Surin is more of much of this draft. Some great tools, especially skill-wise, a ton of confidence, and fights through pressure. That said, Surin has struggled in my viewings to move the puck accurately and reliably outside of off his own stick, and his confidence can get the best of him as well, working himself into unwinnable situations and soft turnovers. Surin still carries a great set of hands and has a strong catch-and-release as an finisher in the offensive zone. I could see a team taking a big, hard swing on him and betting on the raw skill and offensive oomph, but for me there are limitations on Surin’ style of play that put him behind quite a few others.

• #64 | Jacob Battaglia | Kingston Frontenacs | RW | Jan Rnk (79)

  I could see a world where Jacob Battaglia is an energetic bottom six NHL player with the intensity, skating ability and flashes of skill you get with Battaglia. It’s tough to project a massive amount of offense with Battaglia, but as complimentary power winger with skill on the side, he’s been an impressive one to watch for me. He struggles to generate truly threatening offense, but he’s shown great potential as an offensive transition quarterback and a knack for off-puck intensity and anticipation.

• #65 | Alexander Zetterberg | Örebro HK J20 | C | Jan Rnk (71)

  I didn’t have Zetterberg ranked for a while, but he’s continued to beat expectations and impress. His ability to time passes perfectly to slip pucks through traffic, or drag a forechecker out of the dot line to open up the centre of the ice, or just find ways to maintain possession with a reliable play, Zetterberg has all the ingredients to be an impressive possession winger. The trouble is that he lacks size and a real explosive level of skill and quickness to evade pressure in close quarters. He can catch breakouts cleanly in stride and find routes to evade pressure if he can see it coming, but when the game tightens up, Zetterberg can be erased somewhat. I’ll be keen to see him at the U18s, as he’s had some great performances with the national team this season, and to see how a profile like his stacks up against more physical opponents.

• #66 | Matvei Shuravin | Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | D | Jan Rnk (38)

  Matvei Shuravin is a weird, weird player. The first few games I saw, he was laid back in a good way, daring defenders to cross him and causing turnovers through stick checks well. The next few games, he looked extremely outmatched by the pace of the KHL, and going back to the MHL/VHL levels, Shuravin seems to have evolved in my mind to be well, not quite the good-boring player I saw early in the year. His defending is too passive much of the time and he struggles in close quarters. I’ve seen moments with strong forward skating strides propelling him into the offensive zone with possession of the puck, but it’s hard to put Shuravin over a significant number of defenders ahead of him on my list.

Tier 5 - Size, Skill, and Ludvig Johnson

• Switching to bullet points for the rest of the list, these are some really interesting players with combinations of size and skill that could be developed into something more, and a few raw tools options that are a different kind of project.

• Ilya Protas has gotten better as the year has gone on, always showing skill and determination under pressure. He attacks the net, brings a great combination of strength and skill.

• Harrison Brunicke has some great feet under him, but I think there’s a lot of roughness around the edges with his vision in transition, pass selection, and ability to maintain offensive zone possession outside of fakes and point shots. Plenty to be interested in and let develop in the WHL for two more years though.

• Ludvig Johnson has been in my back pocket all year after catching him with Leon Muggli early in the season. Johnson is a highly skilled defender with remarkable confidence and one on one talent. There are a ton of “almost really impressive” moments with Johnson, losing possession at the last moment, chipping a puck just a bit too short for him to retrieve it, an extra skill move before a shot, there are a lot of things that have limited Johnson’s potential but it isn’t for lack of trying.

• Dean Letourneau is the ultimate question mark in the whole class to me. Yes, he dominated the prep high school league with a bagillion goals and kajillion assists, but I’ve come away looking for a bit more out of Letourneau in order to put him way higher like others have him. He’s extremely tall and resilient under pressure with SAC, which is to be expected because well, look at him. His ability to catch and release pucks is strong, however, and he can work his way to scoring areas as a tipping and rebound threat. Could he be an NHLer? Sure. I see him in that Michael Rasmussen/Nick Bjugstad type of giant forward who can shoot in stride and make smart, calculated passes to keep play moving. That’s where Letourneau was strongest with Sioux Falls this year, but time will tell what goes down here.

The Watchlist - Projects and the “Likely Undrafted But Fun Anyways” Group

• I don’t think I’ve seen a player like Jesse Pulkkinen in a very long time. The guy is a real adventure. Some moments, he’s a talented cerebral passer with some strength behind the plays he puts together, and others he’s making absolutely mystifying decisions carrying pucks, not shoulder-checking on retrievals, and turning pucks over often. His production to me is explained by his ability to pull a puck away from pressure and jam his giant body between the puck and the defender. At the junior level, he was unstoppable, and in Liiga, it all comes and goes. If someone takes him in the first round, it’s a reach to me, but dang nabbit I respect it.

• Bergström is a player I’ve been very surprised hasn’t taken the offensive step expected in HockeyAllsvenskan. He’s a gifted skater with both straight line speed and mobility to manage gaps and monitor opponents. There are bursts of speed, deception and skill and he was one of the most productive even strength defenders at the U20 level in Sweden.

• I adore Jacob Therrien. Such an annoying, competitive, and skilled player, Therrien is all potential for me. Some of the most impressive rushes I’ve seen this year have involved quick give and goes and fancy dangles with a lightning quick release in the offensive zone. The possession numbers aren’t great, but Therrien drives great transition results and has plenty of capability of being a shooting threat from range.

• More intelligent players hit this list in Aatos Koivu, John Whipple and Viggo Gustafsson who all carry signs of skill, and strong vision of the ice with defensive responsibility. Gustafsson especially has impressed me internationally and I hope that trend continues at the U18s.

• William Nicholl barely plays for London, but he’s stuck out to me here and there watching other players and in isolation looked strong. High skill, uses it intelligently, and I believe with more experience and more of a role, he would grow into it and increase his production. An interesting possession player that is a bit rough around the edges, but has caught my attention.

• Parker Alcos is one I’ve poked around on here and there this year and just see a strong fundamental to work on. Good skill, good shot, good mobility, good frame, everything with Alcos is fine and I’m going to dig in more before the end of the year. A player on the NHL CSS list who I hadn’t seen yet, and I believe that with time, there could be something with Parker Alcos.

• Yes yes, I see you googling who Anton Bitev and assume I’ve lost my mind, but here me out. He’s just a really curious and weird case this year but I’ve liked what I’ve seen. He’s a re-entry who was playing in Togliatti below the MHL last season. After a strong start to the year with Togliatti’s MHL team, Bitev was swapped to Spartak' Moscow’s system and was immediately jammed into the bottom levels of the lineup and not playing every game. That said, the pace in his game is fantastic, hopping, skipping and jumping in and out of rushing lanes and chasing down puck possessors with intensity. His lack of production partially comes from playing somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5 minutes a night but seeing him slow things down on the puck and have a somewhat limited offensive approach relying on pure speed off the rush, but I just really enjoy watching players like him. Another year in the MHL likely does Bitev well with Spartak promoting quite a few players, lending him more ice time.

• Kenta Isogai is still here. I don’t expect him to be drafted but someone like Dallas or whoever bringing him to a camp and handing him a deal they likely don’t regret is possible. He’s added a more incisive mid-range playmaker’s game, following up on pressure in scoring areas, but still the high intensity 200-foot effort player he’s always been.

• Eemil Laurel is another 2004-born Finnish re-entries who stood out to me watching Sebastian Soini and Ondrej Kos live earlier in the year. Laurel is a ridiculously hard working player on the puck, both pushing and rushing through pressure as much as he likes, even in Mestis. Laurel had ridiculous production on an awful Ilves junior team and showed well in the limited Mestis minutes I watched.

• Joel Abrahamsson is a player who like teammate Viggo Gustafsson was first on my radar watching Swiss zippy boy Jamiro Reber earlier in the year. Where Reber is all speed, skill, and transition pace without much else, Abrahamsson is a different kind of project. Tall, lanky, but a gifted combination of skill and shot release, Abrahamsson has worked his way up the HV71 food chain over the season and been a standout at the U18 level with some real signs of potential.

• Speaking of tall, raw forwards with skill who play U18 hockey in Sweden, Cedrik Johansson is still here. He’s still tall, still lanky, still unrefined, but when he gets going and attacks the net, he’s a hard nut to crack. Likely not drafted, Johansson is a strong skater, covering ice with his reach and powerful stride. The shot release is very impressive, however and a major driver of his offense.

• I watched chunks of the Minnesota high school hockey tournament and checked out some USHL tape of the standouts who participated at that level this year. There weren’t a ton who jumped off the screen at me when looking at USHL footage but Gavin Uhlenkamp certainly has been the one I’ve latched onto. A major reason for Chanhassen’s first finals appearance after a shock upset of Minnetonka, Uhlenkamp is raw speed and power, forcing his way around the ice, fighting through players and getting some great wrist shots off from very strong scoring areas. Another one I need to see more of before June, but he’s been a standout from that side of the world.

• The Des Moines boys Theo Kiss and Ilya Protas are impressive and it has felt like they’ve improved over the year. Kiss was admittedly not great at the WJAC this season on a poor Slovak roster, but I’ve gone back many times to check him out and he continuously shows a ton of capability as a forechecking forward, but even more potential as a dual threat offensive piece. Similar to Voronin, his timing and overconfidence at times can lead to lower percentage chances, but he’s got a great shot he never fires from poor distances, and he tries to slip passes through traffic often.

Office Hours #2

Welcome back to Office Hours! This is a series that will review some of the key stories and performances of players tracked in recent weeks, some quick thoughts and insights and where they moved on my board if at all. This week, we take a look at a few North Americans who have made some significant moves around my board since the last ranking I published in January. Stay tuned for an updated 2024 NHL Draft Ranking coming in the next couple weeks!

---

John Mustard - Waterloo Black Hawks - Currently Ranked 29th

Mustard is a perplexing one. In my view, he’s raw in the truest sense. He’s a wonderful north-south skater with great skill and evasion ability in transition. There’s an excellent release on his wrist shot, and lots of raw potential. For a player who was playing AAA hockey last season in New Jersey, as well as a player nearly ineligible for the 2024 NHL Draft, being 2nd in team scoring is impressive to say the least. The troublesome bit is that Mustard seems to be a very self-driven play driver who is still quite rough around the edges with his timing, finding gaps in transition, and being able to drive himself into scoring areas to create his own scoring chances and chances for others. He’s a player who shows tremendous ability in spurts, but you still want to see more out of him.

Using his speed to play with some more intensity in his own end could go a ways to getting him more involved in moving pucks up the ice. He’s highly involved defensively, relying on stick checks and being somewhat successful, but an extra push here and there that he is definitely capable of could take him a ways from here. He’s a bit of a volume shooter and his selection could use some work as well. All that said, all the tools are there. Learning to slow things down at times and problem solve at a lower pace when necessary could be a big step to go along with that extra step of quickness and intensity that he seems to need. While Mustard clings to a 1st round slot for me, that’s more based on his potential and youth, rather than what is directly in front of you every shift. The idea of John Mustard in a few years as a speedy 200-foot shot-first forward is tantalizing however, and could be an impressive add in the draft later than he probably should go.

An example of Mustard’s strength on his edges, evasiveness and quickness. While he loses control in this clip, you can see signs of his potential as a possession forward with diverse offensive tools.

---

Ben Danford - Oshawa Generals - Currently Ranked 53st

Over the years I’ve grown to appreciate players who just go over the boards and play a role that will never be out of demand. This goes doubly for defenders, and Ben Danford could be a great example of this kind of player. While he has issues connecting on passes in transition and rarely carries pucks himself, Danford is an intelligent positional defender, willing to play the body when necessary while also using his mobility and range to cut off loose pucks and make quick plays to extend possession. Stick checking in defensive transition has been a bit of a work in progress but when he plays the body, it’s tough to get through him. He scans the ice well, and in isolated moments, he has some impressive signs of something more locked away there. While I don’t think his NHL upside is massive, I could easily see him eating minutes and defending dangerous areas well as he’s done in Oshawa in the viewings I’ve seen this year.

---

Clarke Caswell - Swift Current Broncos - Currently Ranked 61st

This draft is often characterized by incomplete talent profiles but strong isolated areas of play. If I had to pick a player who might be one of the smartest players in the class who just seems to really “get it”, it’s Caswell. It’s always the little details with him that may go unnoticed, but the keen-eyed will notice his ability to utilize little pockets of space, create space, and forecheck with a strong sense of timing. He finds routes up the ice and is among the more efficient offensive transition players I’ve tracked this year. He makes himself a target on breakouts well, he finds ways to hit targets of his own with passes, even on offensive zone entries, and has a work rate that hopefully can overcome the lack of high end speed and skating ability that he seems to have. He’s a huge driver of slot passes but completing them is a bit of a work in progress and working on building his timing and vision to create plays rather than blindly heaving pucks into scoring areas could expand his offensive output.

I’ve been impressed with Caswell and the game I covered this past week was absolutely his best I’ve seen this year. After almost an hour of 5v5 data, he’s one of the better drivers of potential offense with extremely high end rates of dangerous shot attempts and these slot pass attempts in my entire dataset. Will it project to the NHL? I’m still not sure, but if it does, he could be a very very good pickup in the middle rounds of this draft.

---

Jett Luchanko - Guelph Storm - Currently Ranked 28th

The first few sentences of the Clarke Caswell update could be applied in an even more impactful way. Luchanko may lack the raw offensive output Caswell has had, but the quality of those chances are all ramped up quite significantly. His shot selection is nearly perfect, driving huge amounts of dangerous attempts and very little in the way of perimeter shooting. He generates more dangerous shot assists, but is also a highly impressive offensive transition quarterback. He reads play extremely well, forechecking with a great sense of timing and with strong pace leading to great offensive zone turnover generation rates.

Luchanko has grown on my over this season. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft as well, and has only gotten better the more I’ve seen him. There are echoes of an Easton Cowan-type profile here, leading with intelligence and selfless play, but rather than the dog-on-a-bone work rate Cowan had, Luchanko brings his intelligence to generating scoring chances for himself and playing a style of play that would be projectable to the NHL. It’s no-nonsense, it doesn’t always jump out at you, but it works.

---

Office Hours #1

Welcome to Office Hours! This is a series that will review some of the key stories and performances of players tracked in the last week, some quick thoughts and insights and where they moved on my board if at all. Might even include some drafted prospect blurbs in the future, who knows! At this point in the season, I’ve tracked 391 performances across 160 players in my database. From here onwards, new players added will be rare to make more robust data down the stretch for the ~90 players that likely will end up on my final rankings in June. In these pieces we’ll be quickly examining some curious cases that I’ve seen recently, and subscribers will get early access to these, so if you aren’t already, be sure to click the button at the bottom of the post to sign up today and get these as soon as I put them out!

---

Cole Hutson - Team USA U18 NTDP - Currently Ranked 57th

The Hutson brothers are a fascinating pair of prospects these days to analyze as defenders. They are exciting, creative, confident and unlike almost anyone else at the position. Their Achilles heels have always been when pucks are coming their way defensively and in the defensive zone. Physical play is almost a non-starter for both, and their mobility to close gaps and finish with stick checks and contact are not likely to intimidate NHL opponents. With youngling Cole eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft, my early take on Cole Hutson was significantly cooler than his brother around the same age. The intent to push offense, shake off forecheckers and create in the offensive zone was there, but the deceptiveness, quickness and skill level just weren’t on the same level, with similar defensive issues at play as Lane has to overcome. He was losing physical battles, missing stick checks and relinquishing defensive chances, as well as taking on far too much risk in transition without enough speed or skill to find his way through the neutral zone at a projectable level. For a time, Hutson wasn’t even on my board for June, but as time has gone by, my view has changed, and the most recent game tracked solidified him in my late 2nd round for the time being.

Hutson seems to have refined his game significantly and morphed into a much more NHL-like pass-first puck transporter. Rather than focusing so much on skill and deception, Hutson uses his edges through turns to create space rather than skill alone, and shows a bit more explosiveness to navigate around the ice. The impressive bit is his sense of timing on his passes, finding seams to linemates and hitting them at the right time to make the pass as easy as possible. Even passing through traffic, Hutson seems to have a strong grasp of when and how to get pucks through feet and sticks. While Lane may have a highly impressive level of skill and higher end vision of more impressive plays, Cole just goes out and executes good plays with the puck more and more every time I see him. The defending is still worrisome, both in transition and in his own end, and his upside doesn’t overwhelm his shortcomings in the same way as Lane’s might. Cole Hutson is a curious case that I imagine gets drafted later than he should be drafted, but his NHL likelihood remains a question mark. He’s come a ways though, and with a few years in college, who knows what’s possible?

---

Ivan Demidov - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg - Currently Ranked 2nd

It isn’t controversial to say that Ivan Demidov started the season in worrying form. His reliance on skill and self-directed puck possession without high end pace or separation speed exposed him as a significantly limited player in the KHL for a time. The first tracked game of mine in the MHL was an excellent showcase of those issues, just against worse competition in his age group. Since that time, he has absolutely exploded offensively. Since the new year, Demidov has rifled off 37 points in 14 games played, and the tracked data in my database backs up just how absurd he is as an offensive force. Game #4 was against softer competition and his results were predictably outrageous, so I ensure that Game 5 was against a team higher in SKA-1946’s division, and while Demidov came away with a less ridiculous sample, it was still excellent.

The question that rises is what exactly has changed in his game that has unlocked such a level of output. Even in this lower level of competition, I have never seen such results in the MHL, and I absolutely buy what I’m seeing. Demidov made a name for himself last year with his possession-heavy perimeter game that relied on volume over everything. Get the puck, shoot the puck or carry it for 10 seconds and make 4 slot pass attempts while doing so. There wasn’t really any in-between. In transition, Demidov relied on high end skill skill at low speed, trying to put pucks between legs and struggling to generate space from players without fancy looking dekes and evasion. In the time since, Demidov has evolved into a significantly more north-south oriented player, generating significantly better results through his forward stride and pure speed. In the offensive zone, his vision of passing lanes, sense of timing, and willingness to distribute the puck to linemates more often has made him a far more devastating and surgical offensive weapon. Gone are the days of handling pucks as long as he wants, he’s handling pucks as long as he needs to. He’s finding space in scoring areas off the puck, he’s juggling all varieties of transition types almost perfectly (except bodychecking defensively), and is highly successful in all aspects.

My experience with Demidov has gotten to the point where I am increasingly questioning how much I have Macklin Celebrini locked in the first overall slot. Celebrini brings a well-rounded game with capable goal scoring, playmaking, and perception of the game in all zones. Being a natural centre and so effective at the NCAA level at his age, Celebrini has a tough pedestal to improve upon, but if anyone is pushing him, it’s Demidov. The skill, vision, creativity, and his improving ability to manage the puck and quarterback a line on the ice is extremely impressive. He has that “superstar” quality to him that names like Artemi Panarin or Clayton Keller bring, and my concerns about him seem to be alleviated quite significantly. My only concern is that through all this success, he remains in a level he’s far too talented to be in. He’s tearing apart contending rosters consistently and if he’s brought along one step at a time over the next season or two or three, he may come out as the most exciting and productive player in this draft class.

Demidov takes this week’s clip of the week with an explosive rush up the ice leading to his first of three points on the night.

---

Elias Straume Vatne - Färjestad BK J20 - Currently Ranked 79th

Elias Straume Vatne was a player I was remarkably excited to watch going into this season. He was arguably the best player on the Norwegian U18 team last season, with an excellent J18 year with Färjestad. This year, his translation to J20 competition has been… troublesome. If you want a great view into a highly talented player who struggles to produce to their historical standard, Straume Vatne earlier this season would be a great case study. Skating directly into pressure, soft defensive pressure, trying to outskill everyone on every possession, indirect and lackadaisical passing in the offensive zone, good shot quality but never getting in a position to actually shoot the puck, the list goes on. Eventually Straume Vatne found himself at the tail end of my Watchlist as a potential swing with one of your teams last picks in the draft. His omission from the World Junior team was simultaneously disappointing but not surprising, as much as I wished he were there.

Since the J20 Nationell split in half, Färjestad is having a rough go with a 1-10-3 record against the other top J20 teams in Sweden, and Straume Vatne continues to lack the production you’d expect of such a raw talent, but based on my experience with him this week, he has worked his way back onto my numerical list. Where Straume Vatne was more passive defensively and waiting for breakouts in the neutral zone, he was getting more involved in puck play getting out of his own end and showing a bit more confidence to carry pucks and carry more forward momentum going into and through the neutral zone. He was passing pucks quicker, and through all his ups and downs, is taking or creating 55% of his team’s shot attempts while on the ice. That includes the fact that he has shot the puck twice in three performances, both of which from scoring areas. This touches on another area of note. Of the Färjestad players I’ve tracked this year, that team is consistently among the lowest shot volume teams at both ends. Generally, the players who are responsible for generating what limited offense you get from teams like this are the ones that may fly under the radar and could blossom in different situations.

Straume Vatne likely won’t be drafted particularly high, nor should he be, but I’m expecting another strong performance at the U18s this year as a premier player for the Norwegians that may change his fortunes somewhat. It is certain that less talented players will be drafted this season, but a player this rough around the edges requires patience and study. If it’s me, I get a bit of a sense of a potential scrappy, skilled and annoying energy player one day. He’s more physical than you would expect, but you just don’t see it as often as you’d like. The traits he has, but doesn’t show often enough seem to be numerous in my viewings, but sometimes you have to close your eyes and swing the bat on a guy who shows well at their best and you see more as the years go by.

---

The (Data) Story So Far

We’re well past the halfway point of the hockey season, and it feels high time to share some findings through the tracked data I’ve generated through this point. As of time of writing (Feb 10, 2024), I’ve watched 324 performances of players spanning around the globe from the likely top end of the draft right down to “what was I thinking jotting this name down at 2am on a Tuesday”. So far this season has been… a mixed bag, but an exciting one nonetheless and I thought it was time to share some deeper findings.

The data I track is strictly focused on events where the player is directly involved, and entirely collected at 5v5. The idea is essentially to provide a stable backbone of what is actually happening on the ice, and how much the targeted player factored into all the various goings on in a hockey game. Blueline transitions are vital, but how those transitions are generated is vital to understand, and how a player succeeds or doesn’t succeed is even more pivotal to explore. Shots are great, but where are they coming from? How often is their team shooting? Are they capable of distributing the puck to others who then shoot it themselves? Are players getting involved in their own end breaking cycles, causing turnovers and getting play moving? Raw production data simply does not capture this, and relying solely on such data is simply scratching the surface of what’s out there in the NHL Draft landscape.

This data is not what I base my final judgements on, I should note. If I did, Vsevolod Gaidamak and Benjamin Baumgartner would’ve been in my first rounds as some of the best high danger shot generators in the universe. What it does do, is give me a memory bank to go back to and see exactly who is doing what and how, with the video archive providing vital context to get to the qualitative bit. I honestly don’t think I would feel comfortable doing this work without doing things how I do it. I can jump from player to player easily, I’m agile, and over the years I’ve honed in on what I believe are the core aspects and meaningful events that occur in a hockey game. In the simplest terms, you are supposed to take the puck from your opponents, take it towards their net, and put the thing in the net. That’s really all there is to it. Defending, Transition, Offense. Defending, Transition, Offense. Defending, Transition, Offense. Over and over and hopefully you win.

My raw tracked data is locked behind my consulting business Fractal Hockey, so unfortunately I cannot share specific metrics and information publicly, but I felt that it would be prudent to give a peek behind the curtain and point out some intriguing data and video focused findings thus far, as many key players are well past the point where I feel comfortable about my read on them.

---

Luke Misa: Analytics King

Over the 2023 offseason I built a tool to take raw data inputs from my tracking and filter them down into text fragments to help tell the story the data tells. In almost every case I’ve dug into, they “feel” right, relative to my thoughts on the player in general, and while there are some standouts, the one that appears to rise above the rest, especially relative to their public valuation, is Mississauga Steelheads winger Luke Misa.

Luke Misa’s (Mississauga #33) directional changes and playmaking skill on display. Cross-ice vision and forechecking are key strengths of his offensive game.

Almost across the board, Misa is a standout. Massive involvement and efficiency in offensive transitions (OTS%), with elite puck carrying ability, with 34.6% of his transitions coming through carries, maintaining control on 92.9% of attempts. Once the puck is in the offensive zone, Misa is among the leaders in my work in attempting passes to the slot (DPass/60) and creating dangerous chances for teammates (DShA). Misa is also a significant standout when it comes to generating his own shots from scoring areas (iDSAT/60). Combining all of this puts him in rare company in my work over the years including Zach Benson, Logan Cooley, Seth Jarvis, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith, and Conor Bedard among others. As a share of his team’s shot attempts, nearly 20% of them are taken by Misa from scoring areas which puts him again in rare company, but combining >10 dangerous shot assists is something I haven’t seen since starting to track shot assists more granularly. The story continues to be impressive off the puck, as Misa is again right near the top of the class in the offensive zone, generating turnovers and gains of possession as often as names likely to be selected in the top 15 picks such as Zayne Parekh, Konsta Helenius, Berkly Catton, and the big boy Macklin Celebrini.

At the end of the day, this is a player who at worst is highly capable of transporting pucks up the ice with speed and dual-threat offensive creation that is both dangerous off his own stick as well as involving teammates to create dangerous chances of their own. In my view, a second to third round valuation is bordering on absurd, at least on paper. So why the relatively poor outlook on Misa’s future? Setting aside the common “smol” argument people throw around, there are legitimate gaps in Misa’s game that could threaten how effective he could be in the NHL.

---

Where Is Zayne Parekh’s Production Coming From?

Zayne Parekh is on track to be the first OHL defenseman to hit 100 points in their NHL Draft season since that Bruce Cassidy did it back when Billie Jean was first hitting the airwaves. My own experience watching Parekh, one of my most heavily watched players thus far, has been extremely perplexing, however. The data ingested isn’t necessarily poor but it doesn’t really seem to line up with what you would expect from a potentially record-setting offensive defenseman. In some areas, there are definitely areas of concern that could negate what offensive advantages he may create at 5v5.

Possessionwise, Parekh is losing the shot attempt battle. He touches the puck a ton and has an enormous load of pass attempts to go with it (PassAtt/60), with just over two attempts per minute of 5v5 ice time. Of all those attempts, over a third result in a loss of possession. Generating offense is a curious area, generating 8.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time, but the real interesting it is the raw volume of shot attempts Parekh puts on net himself. Parekh currently registers over 21 shot attempts per 60 minutes off his own stick, putting him well ahead of the next challenger Carter Yakemchuk down at 17. 40.8% of Saginaw’s shot attempts taken with Parekh out there are his, and removing dangerous attempts leaves a whopping 31.8% of their total attempts being perimeter shots from Parekh. These numbers would put him well ahead of any NHL defenseman with regards to total shot attempts relative to team shot attempts. Dougie Hamilton has been the only defender this year to pass 20 individual shot attempts, and those still account for just 27% of New Jersey’s attempts with him on the ice. Parekh is in uncharted waters when projecting to the NHL in the shooting regard.

The major strengths and areas of improvement for Parekh (Saginaw #19) with his mobility to draw defenders away from pass options and generate off of perimeter shots. On the other hand, rush defense and board battles are… A work in progress.

The real trouble comes in the rest of the picture. Parekh is clearly one of the most highly involved transition defenders in my data set, largely driven by his long stride, covering stretches of ice easily to snag loose pucks in low to moderate pressure situations. In those situations, he’s generally quite effective in at least turning play around and moving things offensively again, driving his massive rate of pass attempts and overwhelming preference for passing pucks across bluelines (PassPref). Otherwise, Parekh is a player who, at least to me, brings a lot of concern. Many high point defenders have been drafted in recent years, only to underachieve potential, and in my view, the commonality is the lack of high end skating ability combined with an aversion to putting in that extra “oomph” to use a scientific term in close quarters and shutting down opposing rushes and cycles. This to me has been Parekh’s most serious weakness this year that his offensive output may mask for now. The video below displays some of the more… questionable defensive plays I’ve seen out of Parekh this year that brings me significant pause when it comes to valuing him as much as his raw numbers would indicate.

All of this having been said, Parekh is a confident player constantly looking to generate offense using misdirection, pressure and his shot to get pucks into space and on net. All of those tools especially come out on the power play, and Parekh does bring strong, volume oriented offensive output clearly shown in the data. The sustainability of all of this is called into question when incorporating his play in his own end and his reliance on massive shot attempt volumes that likely factors into why he isn’t locked in at the top end of NHL Draft boards.

---

What Exactly Are You Getting in Macklin Celebrini?

There has already been endless talk about Macklin Celebrini and we haven’t even seen a single NHL team eliminated from playoff contention. I’m of the belief that drafting first overall is usually no guarantee of a franchise turnaround considering the sheer difficulty of playing in the NHL in the 2020s, but it certainly helps to have your pick of the litter. We’ve seen some surprises in recent years, we’ve seen first overall picks struggle to translate, and we’ve seen franchises reborn through the name selected first. The 2024 NHL Draft to me is characterized by a somewhat limited selection of players that you can clearly identify as potential major difference makers, but flying pretty high above a sea of uncertainty filled with potential role players and interesting development potential. At the top end, Macklin Celebrini reigns supreme as my #1 player in the NHL Draft, but I do believe he has some competition, and this can be indicated through both the video and the data I’ve tracked to this point.

Celebrini (Boston University #71) displaying his scoring area instincts, playmaking and forechecking/defensive skill.

Celebrini will certainly be a player that should have little issue translating to the NHL as a well rounded offensive centre. While to some he may not carry the ideal frame for an elite NHL centre, the way he’s wired to play the game certainly goes quite a ways to overcome those concerns. In my tracking he may not be the most physical player throwing himself into bodies and in front of pucks in his own end, but he is regularly anticipating the flow of play without the puck, causing turnovers in the offensive zone and breaking up cycles with well timed stick checks and pass interceptions in his own end. There isn’t a particular concern to me of Celebrini being one of those young players who only wants the puck on his stick and solely drive offense.

The skill level on display with Celebrini is also highly noteworthy in it’s practicality. Is he carving through opponents at 5mph at times like 2024 counterpart Ivan Demidov? No, not really. In fact, a teeny tiny criticism I’d make of Celebrini is trying to take on too much pressure on his own, skating cross-ice into double, triple and even quadruple coverage and can lose possession. As mentioned before however, Celebrini doesn’t give up on plays where he may lose possession. He’s right back on the horse, lifting sticks and getting into passing lanes to get the puck moving towards the opposing net again. In the data, this also seems to be a bit of an overinflated concern as he’s carrying pucks up the ice 24% of the time in my data and successful 90% of the time, more than any other transition type.

Where Celebrini does and likely will thrive down the road is in the offensive zone. His defensive transition data is strong, with good stick check involvement at 48% and successful on 63% of those transitions. There is a bit of a lack of physical intensity and strength, but it’s perfectly okay to see gaps in the games of elite players, especially when there are so many bright spots to point at. The text analysis fields above indicate that Celebrini is indeed a dual-threat offensive player, and the proverbial eye-test would agree. Whether defenders like it or not, Celebrini gets to scoring areas and shows a strong willingness to do so many, many times over. He’ll fire passes into the slot, slither around the boards behind the net, snag rebounds, wrap pucks around the net for scoring chances, fake wraparounds, and find ways to battle his way to the slot with and without the puck to gain higher danger scoring chances. What Celebrini certainly isn’t is a volume scorer. He picks his spots well, and takes shots from the perimeter 32% of the time which is impressive for an NCAA freshman to say the least. Ivan Demidov may get chances from closer more often, but the MHL is not the NCAA and Cayden Lindstrom may do the same in my data, but he’s also blessed by god with physical strength and confidence. Celebrini feels a little bit more refined in his decisionmaking and gives me no doubt that there is a willingness and ability to create offense in a manner fitting for the NHL.

So what is a team getting in Macklin Celebrini? I don’t see him on the echelon of a Hughes, MacKinnon or McDavid who will take whatever team he ends up with turn into a serious threat to the league, but I would certainly take a player like Brayden Point on my team any day. A major part of a contender one day, especially with some improvements to his strength under pressure, but the processing skill, shot selection and ability to generate dangerous offense in a variety of ways bodes well for his NHL future.

---

Ivan Demidov: Your Next Favourite Superstar… Maybe.

If you haven’t yet, go to YouTube and watch some Ivan Demidov highlights if you can find them. It doesn’t take long to see how unbelievably entertaining this player has been throughout the season in the Russian junior league. At time of writing, Demidov has put up 57 points in 28 games, but looking deeper things get increasingly outrageous. 27 have come in his last 10, 18 of them at even strength. He’s worked his way to a 50% involvement percentage in team offence, a 47% involvement in team offence at even strength, but the data I have tracked on him to this point has been absolutely bananas. I will say that in Demidov’s particular case, my first tracked game was a KHL performance, which we’ll get to later, but other than that I have three games of data of his. This number will obviously grow and if anything changes I’ll certainly factor that in, but for now, the sample is small, but so ridiculous and fun that we’ve got to chat about this guy. The image above also factors in the tracked KHL game so the metrics are slightly different due to the inclusion of that game in the database.

Taken as a whole, Demidov has found himself participating in 50% of SKA-1946’s offensive transitions, maintaining control of them 83% of the time constantly receiving pucks across the defensive blueine and springing into the offensive zone with the puck under his control. Nobody in the draft can match that. The first game tracked, Demidov controlled 22 of 26 offensive transitions. He is averaging a controlled entry into the offensive zone every Simpsons Intro’s length(ish) of 5v5 ice time. Ridiculous. He’s passing the puck over twice a minute, completing 77% of his passes, with a pass directed at the slot every 70 seconds, or the length from the start of the Simpsons intro to the point where they sit on the couch. That rate has also increased in each successive game, but that may just be the selection of games. He’s completing these passes every 2:30 of ice time. He’s taken 27% of his team’s shot attempts, 72% of those from scoring areas, and set up another 27% of everyone else’s. Across the board, Demidov has been an absolute nightmare offensively over these games, and if recent video is any indication, that hasn’t stopped.

A common refrain from players like this is “but what about the defense” and with Demidov, the numbers nowhere near as tremendous, but they’re at least adequate, if not strong. His 10% involvement in defensive transitions is slightly below average but he’s heavily involved with his stick checks and finds strong rates of success in those situations. Has he thrown a single check in transition? No. Did he only throw a hit in the most recent game with data? Yep. This is a look into some of the pitfalls but this also isn’t what you’re drafting Ivan Demidov for anyway.

Behold some of the dual-threat creativity and remarkable confidence Demidov (SKA #11) displays. Keep in mind the reliance on lower pace movement and moments of overconfidence that were major factors in his KHL struggles.

The catch to all of this is that Demidov has an area that needs improvement that looms over all of this. No, it isn’t just that the MHL’s quality of play is an adventure to itself, but something much more to do with how Demidov’s game will actually translate to higher levels. Through all the insane results, Demidov actually started his season somewhat slow. I was among those who thought he was ready for a KHL introduction after last season, and while Demidov cracked SKA’s lineup, the KHL is not the MHL. Demidov’s skating stride and puck handling often relies on changing his angles and maneuvering his body around the puck to find passing lanes and cross up defenders. The issue is what seems to be short leg extensions in his stride that hamper him avoiding in transition. Opponents can close on him quickly, and he is a player who wants the puck, and wants to hang onto it. In the MHL, he turns himself around turning that forechecker into mist with a skill move, or uses the speed he does have to beat the weaker competition. His tracked KHL game did involve him in transitions at a similar rate, but he was relying more on northbound passes under pressure that were turned over, and he wasn’t given a chance to really use his stickhandling and evasion. The higher pace of play left him behind on a few defensive transitions, and settling pucks was an issue. It simply felt as though the speed and physicality of the game snuffed his ability to play how he likes to play. His early MHL results were good, but his level of dominance wasn’t there compared to what I’ve seen, and his ability to control the puck and change angles has improved, as well as what seems to be more of a willingness to be in motion for pass receptions and finding open ice a little more has led to huge gains for Demidov over the season. In my view he’s gotten more surgical, calculated and mobile, which I am fascinated to see at higher levels. It is far past time for Demidov to get an extended look against men somehow until the end of the season. This level isn’t a challenge, but he’s a player who I believe needs to be challenged. If this guy hits, he’ll be a lot of people’s favourite players, but I could see a world where things don’t quite come far enough to reach the potential he’s shown over the last two years.

---

As I’ve said, data is just information. It helps tell a story of some kind of event that is transpiring, but it doesn’t fully explain everything or capture the full experience of the event itself. These players have stood out in some manner on paper, and the video has provided fascinating context to that information. It also felt prudent to simply put out there what exactly the consensus 1st overall selection actually does out there, and if there may be any competition out there that isn’t being considered as much as it should. Misa drives tremendous results, but does display some potential limitations at higher levels. Parekh scores a ton but beyond raw point production on a powerhouse OHL team, there are issues lying in the data. Celebrini is highly talented, projectable and diversified in his abilities, but to me a question remains if there is any threat to his label as #1 overall this year. If anyone is going to really challenge Celebrini, it may be Demidov simply for the raw superstar potential of this player. Sure there may be issues now, but with the right patience and guidance, where could he be in 5 years? If you had a pick of a Brayden Point-type player or a Artemi Panarin-type highlight reel machine? The data suggests there’s a discussion to be had, and the video seems to lead me to the same conclusion. The next few months could be fascinating, so hold on to your butts.

---

Scouching’s Preliminary 2024 NHL Draft Rankings

It’s that time of the year again. The NHL season is past its midway point, some fanbases are elated, some are pleasantly surprised, some are taking things day by day, some are digging themselves into a pit of despair, and those fans are welcoming others more and more into their pit of despair as the weeks go on. I’ve been hard at work as usual, with over 300 individual performances tracked of 2024 NHL Draft prospects and am finally ready to share some of my thoughts and findings.

On the whole, this draft is proving to be highly curious. There is a lot of very good, but likely not world-changing talent at the top, and in my view there is a huge group of “maybe could be neat” players, many of whom are either quite raw, featuring great tools with so-so application in many spots, or others who excel in a handful of areas and seem to struggle in others. Seriously, right down to around 50 on my list, there are huge swaths of players where if people questioned me on why a player is at 45, and why not somewhere closer to 25, there could be a reasonable discussion had. I have my biases and preferences, and I know what I’m looking for in a player, but if priorities and development expectations are different in another person, things can get murky real quick. In terms of real depth, I get the feeling that this draft drops off relatively quickly. While I don’t like categorizing drafts as “good” or “bad” before they even happen, I do tend to notice how often I’m watching players and having more or fewer “oh wow” moments, and this year there seems to be far less than prior years. I will say though that I think there are many interesting players here, and drafting for volume could be rewarding, even in the mid-late rounds where some interesting bets could slip to.

On that note, I always preface my rankings with a quick explanation of what I look for in players, and why my rankings may look quite different to others. While I track data while watching games, it isn’t my main focus when reflecting and ordering/tiering players. It’s a nice reference manual like the financial metrics of a stock on the market. Can’t be successful without it, but won’t be truly successful relying solely on it. What it does do is isolate where players are effective and not effective, and how it can factor into the performance traits I’m looking for. It’s the backbone of an unwritten story, and it’s up to me to put meat on those bones. In short, the NHL is fast. It’s physical. Things happen real fast, and players need to think quickly, react quickly, move quickly, plan ahead, think creatively, and play hard hockey. I largely set aside size in my evaluation. It is a factor, but it creates limitations on either end of the spectrum. Smaller players have a much higher bar for how intense, skilled, and quick they need in conjunction to be to make things work. Larger players have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to “growing into their bodies”, but they still need to be quick enough to play with high end physical play at the NHL level, and evasive enough to be at least a good possession player with the puck. Just being big doesn’t mean anything, just like being small and scoring points doesn’t always mean anything with regards to projecting to the NHL. You’ll also probably notice why I may not have some names ranked that others do, and it’s really just because when I watch these players, I find it difficult to have enough to say that I get really get excited about. When doing a cross-section of everyone, some players don’t necessarily have what I’m looking for, and I’m personally not a fan of putting names on my list just because others are doing it. If I don’t see an NHL role doing what they do best at their level at 17, or I can’t see how they could be applied differently as they are, it feels dishonest to place them just to avoid future criticism if things don’t go my way. I’ve been wrong about players quite a few times before, but at the end of the day when it comes to making a pick on draft day, I want to be excited about a player and know exactly what I’m getting and how they’ll fit into an NHL system and play at an NHL level one day.

So I hope that prepares you all for what’s below and helps you see things a bit from my perspective. I do my rankings in tiers, but this year I’ll be providing some boiled down text analysis derived from my tracked data, and a quick writeup of every player in my first round, with general points for the later tiers and The Watchlist. One last thing, the positions are listed as positions which I have seen the players play, and defenders are indicated by their shot handedness (R and LHD) and/or the side of the ice they play on if opposite to their handedness (R and LSD). Enjoy!

---

Tier 1 - My Three Amigos

1) Macklin Celebrini - C - Boston University (NCAA)

Celebrini may not be a Connor Bedard, Connor McDavid, or Auston Matthews-level player, but what he is is a highly talented centre with projectable smarts and excellent offensive tools. Maybe a bit of a mirror of what I remember of Matty Beniers? He piles on the points by being a hound on the puck in the offensive zone, rarely taking low percentage chances, pushing into dangerous space with the puck, following up to challenge defenders, and using great turns on his edges to get into space at speed and create secondary chances. He reads play well, even if he may lack pure speed and physical tools, but he puts himself in good position and forechecks intelligently, creating quick turnovers and is among the better players tracked at generating offensive zone turnovers. There’s a lethal shot here that he uses well, he skates hard with a great combination of power, confidence and evasion, and while it’s difficult at the moment to see what he’ll do better than anyone in the NHL, it’s not difficult to see how he will be a highly effective offensive leaning centre with a very projectable game to the NHL.

2) Berkly Catton - C - Spokane Chiefs (WHL)

If there were an award for biggest brain in the draft, it may very well go to Catton. Spokane would be nowhere near where they are without Catton and his ridiculous 48% involvement in team offense. As shown above, both the data and my eyeballs are certain that this guy is a transition and playmaking master, with a dynamic pace to his game, remarkable processing and practicality to his talent, and bringing his strong hockey mind to his off-puck side as a smart, and highly effective forechecker. I see a great future for Catton, especially if he can get a bit more explosive to create separation on the rush but this is a player that plays to his strengths with awareness of his limitations, tricking, baiting and delaying opponents into knots. Many times it’s looked like Catton is tossing pucks to nobody, only to have the pass set perfectly to a trailing forward or secondary shooting option for an unexpected scoring chance. He just does smart things all over the ice, and I could easily see a world where he, Lindstrom, and perhaps even Celebrini are all highly effective NHL players in their own ways. Lindstrom brings exceptional tools and a great physical package, but Catton brings a puppeteer-like ability to the game that I would be surprised if it didn’t translate to the NHL.

3) Cayden Lindstrom - C/RW - Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)

Watching the Hlinka Gretzky cup this year, I was constantly impressed by two of the forwards getting some of the least amount of ice time in Liam Greentree and this guy. Cayden Lindstrom has steadily climbed up my board this year and seems to be one of the most exciting packages of a hockey player I’ve seen in a while. Standing 6’4” and playing centre every game I’ve seen of him, he brings exceptional straight line speed and power to the game, with sublime skill and a prime quality shot. He’s physically resilient with his body positioning and his skating ability, and while he has scored significantly more than he’s assisted this year, there are clear signs of playmaking potential with refinements to his game. He can overthink the game at times, skate into much more than anyone could handle, even him, and can break possession with some questionable pass decisions, but far more often than not I’ve found him to be one of the most exciting and intriguing prospects available this year. He may not end the year this high on my list, but he won’t be far back if at all. I’ve had moments where I felt he was the most interesting and potentially high impact player available, and expanded the top tier to include him. The full package is there, and with the right guidance and development, he could be an offensive monster in the NHL with a physical edge.

---

Tier 2 - A Smattering of Potentially Very Good Options

4) Ivan Demidov - LW/RW - SKA St. Petersburg (Russia)

It is entirely possible that Demidov actually gets drafted significantly lower than where I have him ranked. If you want a player with some incredible tools, and some major areas of improvement that limit his projectability, look no further than Ivan Demidov. Some shifts, you think he’s the best player in the draft, and would’ve pushed last year’s top few players, and other shifts you want to throw your computer in the garbage, fly to St. Petersburg and tell him to chill in person. The skill level and offensive tools are undeniable. He’s like a shark around the perimeter of the offensive zone, searching for and opening seams all over the place, ruthlessly attacking the net over and over and over again. On the other hand, for every seam he opens, he often waits and waits and waits until the seam closes and he starts all over again. At higher levels, this, in combination with his real lack of separation speed and strength has rendered him significantly less effective. His MHL play has been dominant for certain, but for a player like this, that should be the bare minimum. The talent, creativity and skill are almost overcooked with Demidov. To some, that’s a bad thing and hard to fix. For me, it’s something I’d much rather bet on him sorting out than not. I would love to see him play more at the professional level in the VHL, or loaned out to one of SKA’s de facto farm clubs to play minutes in the KHL just to see if he can adapt to and work through the issues. He’s a player where I’ve seen almost nothing out of him for a period, and he pops for three points in 10 minutes and controls the puck a ridiculous amount for the rest of the game. He can shoot it into shin pads from the next town over, he can overhandle pucks longer than David Blaine can hold his breath, and he can be a in and out without the puck from time to time, but holy crap does he ever look good doing it. He’s a long term bet, and you have to be sure that he’s going to be receptive to direction and discipline without losing that skill and creativity. He’s a major wild card, but I adore him and refuse to believe that a few years of development would do nothing but great things for Demidov.

5) Adam Jiricek - LHD - HC Plzen (Czechia)

Adam Jiricek has been a player who I have no idea what to do with at this point. His season came to an end after a brutal looking knee injury at the World Juniors. His play at the Czech professional level has often been a struggle, having trouble shaking off forecheckers, hitting targets with his passing in transition, and being as physically punishing as his brother could be at times. On the plus side though, Jiricek’s mobility is elite, and there have been flashes of excellent skill that give hints of a strong stick-first defending player who can create space and quarterback transitions with his passing. It hasn’t really been there this season as much as I had hoped, but you can still see the signs, especially when you see him play internationally. I’m hoping the knee injury doesn’t sidetrack his career too much, just like his brother at the same age. If he’s a guy that plummets down the board, he could be a high risk, but high defensive upside pick. I remain a fan, but he’s been a frustrating player this season.

6) Zeev Buium - LHD - University of Denver (NCAA)

While this season is touted as much heavier on defenders, and it certainly has it’s share of curious and talented profiles, stability, all-around effectiveness and dependability are in more short order. Other defenders may have better straight line speed or push themselves offensively more, but nobody is as well-rounded as Buium in my view. The mobility is top notch, the skill may not be elite but it’s applied extremely well, his gap control and defensive management are excellent, and his ability to take care of the puck and move it effectively are all major bright spots. I wasn’t surprised to see him crack that all-time USA junior team, let alone show as well as he did at that level. Smart, effective defending with plenty of talent to sink your teeth into as the NHL approaches, Buium has just climbed my board all year after being very impressed with his season last year with the NTDP. The production from Buium is a little bit power play heavy, but points and defenders aren’t the most important combination to me. The other stuff is where he shines, and it enables him to play more in the offensive zone and help transport the puck there extremely well.

7) Michael Brandsegg-Nygård - RW - Mora IK (HockeyAllsvenskan)

It’s pretty easy to see how Michael Brandsegg-Nygård would project into an NHL lineup. In normal seasons, a player like this might be ranked a bit lower, but his energy, forechecking ability, and flashes of skill are hard to ignore. The motor never stops, and he’s looked very effective against men at a solid level in Sweden. Part of a talented Norwegian trio with Noah Steen and Petter Vesterheim, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård is likely to be a great compliment to players with more finesse, but don’t sleep on his ability to maintain possession of the puck and get to the net for scoring chances. Generating speed and controlling pucks in transition are a bit of a work in progress, but he plays to his strengths and has shown a very dependable and intense style of play that should have no problem filling a variety of roles in the NHL in both the regular season and the playoffs. Big, heavy, high pace power goes a long way these days and Michael Brandsegg-Nygård brings plenty of it.

8) Nikita Artamonov - LW - Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod (KHL)

Over the year, I’ve kept moving players down the board, and every time I’ve seen Artamonov, he’s the guy I’m always moving up. At the end of the day, he has surprisingly landed himself in the top 10. In my conversations with a handful of NHL scouts, I know I’m not the only one. Frankly I’m even surprised about it, but when going back to check myself before I wreck myself, Artamonov just continues to impress me, showing no reason to be dropped down the board. He’s one of those players who just seems to “get it”. Almost every puck touch on every shift is handled intelligently, constantly moving play forwards, playing selfless hockey, and keeping things simple in the best way. He reads play extremely well, constantly finding space off the puck and making himself a great pass option, and always seems to have a plan. The footspeed and finishing ability are still a bit of a question mark, but this is a player who will elevate other players and to me that’s always valuable. The fact that he’s doing all of this in the KHL with solid minutes just adds more to the equation in his favor.

9) Artyom Levshunov - Michigan St. University (NCAA)

This draft is marked by players that are equal parts talented and completely dumbfounding. Levshunov to me is the first name I would vote for to put on the Mount Rushmore of this draft consisting of those players. He’s big, can really get moving in a straight line, and is absolutely not afraid of pushing for offense. He loses physical battles more often than I’d like, his rush defense is not great, his mobility and pivoting ability aren’t gregat off-puck either. That said, he pushes into the offensive zone all the time, looking to chip in offensively and funnel pucks to the front of the net. He’s a smart short-range passer as well, finding ways to get pucks off the boards and through feet getting pucks up the ice. He’s another major wild card, and there are a wide range of outcomes for him, but I don’t think he won’t be an NHL defender. His development and how he’s coached will be imperative. He could end up higher on my board by the end of the year, but for now I remain a bit more tepid than the rest of the market due to the uncertainty baked into his style of play and ability.

10) Andrew Basha - LW - Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)

Basha has a strong case for being even higher by the end of the year. There is absolutely sublime skill, high pace, and an ability to combine both at an extremely high level. He may not bring a ton of value in his own end, but I could not care less. He is an offensive zone menace, creating turnovers and reading play well, capable of an accurate shot and surgical playmaking. He may lack raw power to his shot, and he may not be the strongest guy, but he has plenty of speed, intensity, skill and creativity to overcome those weaknesses and become an excellent offensive NHL player. My last viewing of him was a 3 point effort but he could’ve easily had 5 or 6 with all the plays he was creating and a few close calls in the crease of the offensive zone. He’s one of the most fun to watch players in the entire class and should be a great add for a team looking for skill and pace.

---

Tier 3 - High Potential Toolsy Boys

11) Cole Eiserman - LW - U.S. National U18 Team (NTDP)

Ah Cole Eiserman… Is he going to be an NHL player? Almost certainly. Is he going to score goals? Almost certainly, especially on a power play. The shot is undeniably elite. The rest of the package is a bit of a work in progress at the least. I won’t use the word lazy, because I despise that word and he most definitely is not, he’s active and fluid on his feet, but his ability to find space, read breakouts, make himself a target, find other targets with the puck, and reliably get himself to better scoring areas are all troublesome. His shot is lethal from anywhere, but I’ve seen this story in at least one elite level player almost every year I’ve done this work. Shooters need to bring other stuff to the game to be used enough to get their shots off in the NHL enough to score the goals they can score. Eiserman does have a promising future looking at his talent profile, but he is a frustrating watch at current time. He’s physical, and the shot is wonderful, but in the games I’ve tracked, he struggles to find the chance to use that shot at 5v5, and if he isn’t shooting, he’s a far less effective player. He may not go this late, but he also could be a guy who slips closer to the draft. I really have no idea. In my work, I will always value players who have multiple traits that could be NHL-difference makers, which right now I don’t see with Eiserman, moving him down the list, but that shot is really something.

12) Alfons Freij - RSD - Växjö Lakers HC J20 (J20 Nationell)

So we get to the first out of nowhere name on the board in Alfons Freij. Watching him and Leo Sahlin Wallenius last year, I was constantly drawn to Freij more, and I remain that way. Freij is supremely skilled, baiting defenders and opening passing lanes, being an extremely effective transition quarterback and selfless possession monster. He does have some trouble at times on defensive rushes if his feet and stick fail him, and he isn’t the most physical player, but there is so much to work with here. The feet, how he uses them, the vision, and the reliability are undeniable. He’s one of the best puck movers in the draft, and if it weren’t for his shortcomings in his own end, he’d be right up there with a player like Zeev Buium.

13) Anton Silayev - RSD - Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod (KHL)

Another absolute wild card that I have no idea what to do with in Anton Silayev. Some games I’ve seen of him, he’s awful. Some games I’ve seen, he looks strong, stable, and effective. He has certainly improved this season from where he was in August/September, but remains a massive work in progress. He towers over the rest of the KHL at 6’7”, and skates like a player 7 inches shorter, which is an excellent combination to work with. His skill level is developing but still very clunky, his reliability passing pucks is also clunky, leading to far too many neutral zone turnovers and defensive zone giveaways, and he needs more strength on his gigantic frame to win more physical battles than he does. He could easily be higher on my board, but to me there is far too much uncertainty for him to become a truly elite NHL defender for me to place him in the top 10. He’s an unfinished product who don’t believe projects offensively as well as his player cards may indicate, but the potential and package are tantalizing and should project just fine to the NHL. The question remains about exactly what his role will be and how effective he’ll be in the areas that are currently weaknesses for him.

14) Trevor Connelly - LW - Tri-City Storm (USHL)

I’ve had a tough time with Connelly this year, but there are flashes of good moments with him. The power and skill level are certainly high end, but I just haven’t seen as much of a projectable offensive creator as his numbers may indicate. He is indeed highly effective in transition going both directions, and he doesn’t have the best group around him, so signs are bright for improvement. On the note of transitions, he’s been a core part of 60% of Tri-City’s transitions with him on the ice in my tracking, which is almost impossible to sustain, but impressive at this point of the season, and he maintains control at a high rate. He’s also trying to at least funnel pucks to the scoring areas, but his rate of completion remains extremely low. His international performances have been excellent with highlight reel plays all over the place as well. He’s an interesting package to let develop in the NCAA with some other skilled, recruits in John Mustard and Logan Sawyer among others, I just am still sussing him out a little bit. He likely doesn’t drop from here, but there’s potential for me to put him higher.

15) Sam Dickinson - RSD/LHD - London Knights (OHL)

Finally we get to the OHL, and Sam Dickinson is a really tough one for me. Dickinson is a player who is fluid on his feet, generates speed in a straight line well, and has moments with strong offensive instincts to create for linemates and shoot from scoring areas. On the other hand, he is a highly frustrating passer, making questionable decisions often, not reading ice well or mucking it up successfully in his own end. He’s a laid back rush defender and can be beat by more agile, high pace skaters, and I see a wide range of outcomes for Dickinson. Awareness and possession are highly important in the NHL and I feel as though Dickinson has more of a ways to go than others this year. There are moments of promise and talent, especially in the offensive zone, but I’ve found myself wanting quite a lot more out of him after every game. Good puck transporter in a straight line on his feet, good shooter and gets pucks to scoring areas, but the rest of the very important equation is questionable.

16) Luke Misa - LW - Mississauga Steelheads (WHL)

I’ve seen an incredible amount of difference in opinion with Luke Misa, but in my view, the potential is enormous, even if he can be a bit frustrating at times. The effort level, the skill, the vision and creativity is all there. Lots of echoes to Andrew Basha here, but scaled down a bit. He’s an excellent forechecker, causing plenty of turnovers and creating a tremendous amount of offense for his line. Porter Martone wouldn’t be on pace for 50 goals without him, and Misa will likely only be limited by how much stronger he can get without losing the pace and skill he naturally has. Misa can be a player that vanishes at times, but I think that’s only noticed so much because he’s so impactful so often that the quieter moments stick out. There’s a ton of potential for Misa and can’t wait to see where his career goes. He could be a great upside pick later, or a team could take the plunge around this spot and hopefully come out with one of the most creative offensive puck hounds in this class.

17) Liam Greentree - RW - Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

God I want Liam Greentree to be a thing. In a more limited role at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup this year, I felt that he outperformed names ahead of him and have been thrilled to see him do what he’s done to this point. I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that the Windsor Spitfires are the worst team in the OHL with some of the most lopsided losses seen in a while for a team that isn’t the Niagara IceDogs. On pace for a goal differential beyond -100, Greentree is now captain of a team that is certainly at or near rock bottom. That said, he’s on pace for 99 points and to pass 40 goals, and he most definitely is not a passenger doing so. If Greentree’s agility and skating in general on both sides of the puck were a step or two or three or four better than where they are now, he would almost certainly be among the top picks in the draft for me. He is exceptionally skilled and confident, challenging players with directional changes and manipulation, and for a guy on a team so awful, you certainly wouldn’t know it from his tracked data. No matter which way you slice it, he shows exceptional promise. Reflecting on this list he should certainly be higher than he is, but the skating and quickness are certainly major points to improve. Even so, he’s managing to land points on 44% of Windsor’s goals, with only Berkly Catton and Macklin Celebrini crossing 40% at this range of the draft or higher. He’s creative, pulls pucks around pressure, plans his route of attack well, and brings one of the most intriguing combinations of talent I’ve seen in a while.

18) Emil Hemming - RW - TPS (Liiga)

It may surprise folks to see Hemming as my top rated Finn, but I felt the World Juniors showed a lot of the reasons why. We’ll get to Konsta Helenius later, but Hemming seems like the guy you pick if you wanted Michael Brandsegg-Nygård and missed out. A higher pace, higher skill winger with size who may not be an enormous play driver, but brings an energetic, physical style of play. He may not be an extremely high end pure offensive talent, but you definitely see flashes of creativity and evasive play. He’s a little rough around the edges that prevent him from being a high end prospect this season, but I could easily see him complimenting skilled players that lean a little more offensively in the NHL one day, even if it’s in more of a middle six role with penalty kill upside. He rarely overthinks the game with the puck, reads, anticipates and challenges the puck well without it, and while the high upside isn’t necessarily apparent right this second, there are signs of improvement there as well. I’ll be curious to see how his back half has gone, but stashing him in Finland for a few years to see how his game develops could be an interesting swing to take in the back half of this year’s first round.

19) Igor Chernyshov - LW - Dynamo Moscow (Russia)

Igor Chernyshov is one that is really up and down on this list. He’s bounced around levels in Russia, and really strikes me as someone similar to all of those USA NTDP players over the last few years who may not bring a ton of defensive value that can really affect outputs when on the ice, but when they get the puck secured in the offensive zone, or have moments in space to make a play to generate offense, Chernyshov can be a pretty lethal weapon. He’s not the quickest player, but he’s confident with his skill, protective pucks well and creating passing lanes and playing a simple but effective offensive game. I’ve spotted him being effective with his body positioning, easily outmuscling much worse MHL talent and winning loose puck races, and even bringing that resilience to the KHL in spots. The issue with Chernyshov is that I don’t know how much of his game that he’s successful at in Russia projects to as high a level in North America. He’s skilled, but not a higher pace player with that skill. He’s not a poor skater, but doesn’t really have projectable separation speed and his skill is often at it’s best when he’s deking defenders standing still rather than in motion. He can score goals with his effective "just go to the net and stuff will happen” approach, but his shot release in stride and from open ice is hit or miss relative to those ahead of him here. I’m not sure he’d be available where I’d be comfortable picking him if the draft were tomorrow, but he’s another one of these players where I wonder why he’s in my first round, and a couple plays he makes during a game change my mind and wonder what he looks like in 4-5 years a la Danila Yurov from a few years back.

20) Sacha Boisvert - C - Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

Similar to Chernyshov, I’ve gone back and forth on Sacha Boisvert all season, but I always am curious about the potential in his style of play. He brings a relatively simple but fundamentally sound flow to the game, tracking play well, finding space, challenging puck carriers defensively, causing turnovers and driving play in many metrics very well. He’s a skilled, relatively quick bigger centre which is always tantalizing for an NHL team, making moves in transition to get through defensive pressure and get into scoring areas. He has trouble finding space with the puck to spot and find linemates in the offensive zone, but grinding play along the boards to get pucks into scoring areas seems to be a strength I’ve seen a few times here and there. I wouldn’t categorize him as a pure goal scorer and I think there is potential for more, I just want to see him get a bit more fluid and controlled with puck possession, upping his skill level a bit to become a bit more dynamic, especially in the offensive zone, but this is a guy who checks darn near every box datawise and shows a ton of potential, especially in the offensive direction. More development to his skating stride, and edges should make him a better defensive transition threat, but his mind for the game and sense of timing helps here significantly. He was much higher on my board earlier in the year, but not because he’s performed poorly. This whole range is extremely close and he really rides the line from tier 2 and 3.

21) Tij Iginla - LW - Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

Tij Iginla has been a tough one this year. The guy has that dawg in him, that’s for sure. He plays like the son of an NHLer that had the heart of a guy like Jarome Iginla, so that checks out right there. Iginla is a player who seems to be a much more interesting playmaker and passer than he is a goal scorer as his production may indicate, but it’s been so difficult to tell what he really is because Kelowna just hasn’t been particularly great at moving the puck with him on the ice. Lots of metrics are at a low per 60 rate in my data, but that’s because Kelowna just hasn’t had the puck much. Iginla is a prime transition target, and highly effective at it, carrying and pucks extremely well, and shows a ton of success stick checking off-puck as well. Similar to Emil Hemming, this is a player who I think could complement some skilled players extremely well, but this is a guy who does bring some skill to the table himself. He’s a solid shooting talent, but the work rate and vision will take him a long ways as a 200 foot energy player. He could end up much higher on my board by the end of the year, but it’s been hard to get a gauge on just how effective he is because circumstances around him haven’t been great. He’s responsible for taking or setting up 47% of Kelowna’s shot attempts while on the ice, he’s all over the ice without the puck in a good way, but the actual possession numbers and offensive threat levels remain limited.

---

Tier 4 - The Dam Bursts

22) Zayne Parekh - RHD - Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

Hooooooo boy. I’ve been watching Zayne Parekh in some way for some reason since his final AAA season. I remember loving what he was capable of at the time while volunteering for an OHL club in the shadows, but internal discussions shed some light on why he slipped in the OHL draft somewhat, even if he was one of the most skilled offensive leaning defenders in the province. Over my years of doing this work, there have been point-farming defenders drafted high. They score and score and score and score, even through the AHL, and when they hit the NHL, things come to a screeching halt and they end up in and out of the lineup. Think Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean, Ryan Murphy, Ryan Merkley, Ty Smith, etc. Sure, there are some others who score a ton and work like Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, Quinn Hughes and others, but it doesn’t take long to see the differences between these brands of players. In the NHL, this latter group are absolutely top notch, elite skaters in the league with top notch elite level skill that they can use in conjunction, and also are capable of using those skills without the puck to create turnovers quickly and get play going in the right direction. Defenders who aren’t elite in those traits who also turn off the taps without the puck and chase offense as often as they can are players who seem to be the ones who struggle. I have most definitely struggled to see a well-rounded NHL defender in Parekh so far this season. He is at his best when given the puck in the offensive zone where he can throw it on net low for rebound generation, or take a few steps, make a move and shoot from threatening areas. His ability to move the puck himself appear to me to be good enough to be successful in the OHL, but the amount of time it takes to get the puck up the ice and make decisions, coupled with the level of confidence he has doesn’t feel like a great combination long term. He started much higher on my board but every viewing has dropped him. His defensive game in transition and in his own end has been bordering on non-existent, and to me in this range you’ve drafting him to bet that he’s a Shayne Goestisbehere/Tony DeAngelo type who you cannot stand in his own end, but can patrol a PP from the blueline and be a rover at 5v5 played with his polar opposite-type of defender. It’s entirely possible that I simply haven’t seen the right performances to see what I’m not seeing, but Parekh has struck me as a player who fans will wonder why they were drafted so late, score a trillion points in the OHL reinforcing those thoughts, only to have trouble getting NHL minutes when many coaches expect dependability from their defensemen.

23) Topias Hynninen - LW/C - Jukurit (Liiga)

Wait a tick, that’s not Konsta Helenius… I must must be sipping the liquids under the sink again, but hear me out. If you could could combine Hynninen and Helenius, I think you’d have a tremendous player. Hynninen absolutely has his issues. He’s small, he’s frustrating with his decision making and how long he can delay his play. He shoots from the perimeter a bit too much at inopportune times, and he isn’t the strongest player out there, but this guy has serious energy. He’s one of the most involved players in transition going both directions of all forwards, sitting 15th in total zone transitions. He has a higher rate of shot assists than Helenius, I feel as though he carries his pace better and follows play going both directions better than Helenius. The strength deficiency allows a bit too many players through his defending, but he never backs down. His play in Mestis showcased more offensive tools, but that obviously needs to come out more in Liiga. He creates a comparable share of shot attempts on the ice as Helenius, passes the puck more, completes more of his slot passes, drives offensive transitions just as well and just as often, and could be had quite a few rounds after Helenius goes off the board. Hynninen gives me echos of Roni Hirvonen with many aspects of his game, and with some time in Finland to earn more minutes and gain more confidence against pros, I think there’s an interesting energy player that can be a great transition conduit down the road with Hynninen.

24) Daniil Ustinkov - LHD - ZSC Lions Zurich (National League)

The list of solid defensive leaning defenders this year seems to be quite short, at least at the high end of the draft, but Ustinkov has been a guy I’ve been keeping a keen eye on for a year since seeing him with the Swiss U18 team last year. Ustinkov isn’t huge, but he’s filled out nicely for his size, is highly mobile, reads play to position himself well, and took almost 20 minutes of ice time to miss on a pass. Were they risky stretch passes up the ice? No, but he’s been in the National League every game I’ve seen, arguably the 2nd best pro league in Europe, and does not look out of place whatsoever as a near-2025 Draft eligible. The close quarters defending is a work in progress, but I think the profile is solid as-is, and there are flashes of offensive moves to create for linemates in the offensive zone, especially outside of the highest levels he plays in. He can be shifty from the offensive zone, look off primary options and quarterback offensive cycles well. There aren’t many areas I can really critique that matter a whole lot for players like Ustinkov, but he’s a solid defender with strong fundamentals, and moments where you see more in him. His World Junior wasn’t great from what I saw, but between him and point producing counterpart Leon Muggli, I see more projectable and interesting tools in Ustinkov that you can let develop in Switzerland for as long as necessary.

25) John Mustard - LW - Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL)

From what I’ve heard as I drop my fandom of John Mustard over the course of this season, it seems that this may be a bit of a controversial one. I completely admit the Mustard is a raw, unfinished product who can cause turnovers through inaccurate passing, overhandling, overconfidence, and can make you want to pull your hair out. On the other hand, the guy is a USHL rookie coming from AAA hockey last year, almost a 2025 Draft eligible, has exceptional speed, impressive skill to create lanes and break pucks out effectively, a great shot from range and a great nose for scoring chances off-puck around the net. Mustard will need time in Providence College to refine his game. If you take your time, you could have yourself a speedy, skilled, tall winger who may have potential as a centre. He may be quite shot heavy, but he’s among the leaders in my tracking when it comes to scoring chances from short range. Again, Mustard could very well end up low, but I keep moving other names lower, and whenever I see Mustard to move him lower as well, I always end up excited about many parts of his game and the potential locked within.

26) Lucas Pettersson - C - MoDo Hockey J20 (J20 Nationell)

Lucas Pettersson is a player that will giveth, and taketh away. I’ve been enamoured with the straight line speed, the playmaking at high pace, the effective forechecking and his international play in general, but my goodness do you want to shake him and demand more, and more often. Overthinking plays, overhandling the puck, skating into unwinnable situations, poor shot selection, this guy is all talent but just hasn’t settled in to take over shifts consistently. His J20 team isn’t great, so he may be trying to do too much on his own because he has to, and I’ll have my eyes on him down the stretch. I’m hopeful he gets a little more of an extended run with MoDo in the SHL after a tracked performance that exposed some of his limitations, but also indicated how he’s capable of working around them. I would expect him to pile on the points from here if he stays in J20 as MoDo will be playing the bottom half of competition, so I’m hoping to see him settle his play a little bit and make him a little more projectable to me. He’s a player that shows great promise in spurts, but I can easily see how this player could be selected significantly later than I have him ranked, and how I could have him deeper into my second round by year’s end.

27) Michael Hage - C - Chicago Steel (USHL)

I’ve been watching Michael Hage since his Toronto Jr. Canadiens days, and was a little bit concerned with his game after a less than spectacular injury-filled season with the Chicago Steel. This season has not been the same at all. Hage has showcased a game almost devoid of weaknesses in my view and is only limited by his footspeed and the aftereffects of a deficiency in that area. He’s highly skilled, baiting defenders, changing lanes, getting the puck off the boards into open ice, making creative plays in the offensive zone, and showcasing a high-end shot at the end of a chain of possession. Hage is a player that has been noticeable almost every shift I’ve seen him, making plays at high pace and in quick sequence at times. 27 to me is about as low as I’ll likely put him, and I could easily see him rising on my board towards the end of the year. His footspeed limits his defensive impact, but it’s almost overwhelmingly outweighed by the offense and potential locked therein for him to be an impactful offensive NHL centre.

28) Teddy Stiga - LW/C - U.S. National U18 Team (NTDP)

I saw a note from someone fawning over Teddy Stiga way back in October and I thought it was awfully silly after my early viewings of the NTDP. He’s undersized and I didn’t see a tremendously evasive or creative player so I made a note to track him, but thought little else. Then the day came and he simply blew me away. Stiga is undersized, yes, but he is, as the kids say (I think), a dawg. He’s a high pace player both on and off the puck, applying pressure remarkably well, causing turnovers many times and thinking quickly to set up scoring chances. Stiga doesn’t often overthink play with the puck, finding space and changing routes on the fly, with a great ability to slip passes through traffic. His shot may not be extremely high end as NHL-quality, but he rarely wastes his chances and gets those chances off his stick quickly. I doubt he’s a first round pick in the NHL Draft, but this is a guy who will give you 100% on every shift at both ends, never backing down from anyone, and making life a pain for opponents. If you’re foolish enough to let him play with the puck in the offensive zone, or wheel up in the neutral zone on the rush, you will probably be in some degree of distress.

29) Marcus Kearsey - LHD - Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL)

This one is completely and utterly out of left field, I know. I’m on the record many times about how Quebec seems to be falling behind the other Canadian leagues over time, and my bar for players in the QMJHL is very high. Kearsey caught my attention in the off-season as the Q’s leading scorer for D-1 defensemen, and he’s carried things into this season extremely well in my view. He isn’t the biggest defender, and he is absolutely not a rock in his own end, losing battles and getting erased more than you’d like, but the skating, skill level, confidence are all very good. Above all else, the way he sees the ice are seriously high end in my view. He’s one of the few defenders I’ve seen this year with a keen eye for juggling multiple pass options, changing pass lanes on the fly, keeping forecheckers guessing and moving play up the ice exceptionally well. In the offensive zone, he’ll juke off an opposing forward, step up into the dangerous areas and try to create chances in scoring areas, he’s got great edges to help shake off pressure as well. I’m not comparing him directly to Lane Hutson whatsoever, but the strengths and weaknesses are a bit of an echo. I would love to see Kearsey keep developing, getting quicker and more agile, overcoming his defensive faults with footwork and speed rather than strength, and leaning into his offense a little more than he already does at 5v5. He’s a project, but he’s always been a ton of fun for me to watch and likely won’t finish the year a significant amount lower than where he is here.

30) Konsta Helenius - C - Jukurit (Liiga)

I can hear the expletive-laden exclamations coming from all of you already. You scrolled and scrolled and scrolled, and here we are. Yes, I have Konsta Helenius ranked significantly lower than the marketplace, but as best put by Ronald McDonald of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia: “I’m dug in, and I’ll never change.” I’ve watched Helenius four times, tracked three other games and made a point to pay attention to him in the World Juniors. I just don’t see a player I would draft in the top 10 or 15 in this year’s class. I just kept coming across players that interested me more over and over and over. He’s somewhat undersized. He’s not a high pace player, he’s a fluid skater but not necessarily agile or quick. His skill level is practical but not at all high end to me. He’s producing in Liiga, I can’t fault him for that, but Liiga is a strange place. Look, I went to bat for Brad Lambert because of the pace, skill, and intensity he brought to the game, and how often he created offense for a team that did jack-poopie around him. Helenius plays like a good Liiga player, but to me, not a player who projects exceptionally well to the NHL. Not every NHL player needs to be a burner, or have insane levels of skill and can certainly get away largely with a high IQ, but there aren’t a ton of them, especially at the top end of the league and at Helenius’ size. The thinking off-puck and his vision with his passing are certainly high end, and maybe I am indeed completely out of my mind, but this is a guy who just feels like a bit of a passenger at the moment, and his World Junior somewhat confirmed that with his limited impact. Yes, I saw the player cards too, but I do not really care much. In my work, he’s by far most likely to be a factor in transition through pass receptions rather than his passing or carrying abilities. He’s physical, but not extremely impactful. His pass attempt rate is significantly below average, and his ability to create shots for linemates is limited to this point. He likely won’t end up any lower, because I do really respect the mind for the game he brings, it’ll just be a matter of how much he can develop his talent profile, and if he can be the creative and clever player he is in Liiga at the NHL level.

31) Tomas Galvas - RSD/LHD - Bílí Tygři Liberec (Czechia)

I will quote Gennaro Gattuso here: “Sometimes maybe good, sometime maybe shit.” That encompasses Tomas Galvas extremely well in my time watching him this year. He’s undeniably skilled, undeniably an excellent passer and often facilitates play well. His breakouts are a weakness, missing targets, bobbling pucks and not being quite evasive or quick enough on his feet to evade professional competition, but Galvas is still a ton of fun to watch. He isn’t a particularly mobile skater and can get taken for a walk in his own zone as such, but he anticipates play well, reading the game off-puck, seeing events happen before they occur, and showing plenty of promise as a pass-heavy puck moving defenseman. More time and experience at the top level will do him well, similar to fellow undersized countryman Jiri Tichacek, and the floor on his game is low for an NHL prospect, but his World Junior performance was largely impressive, and I think there’s plenty of headroom for him to develop. I’d love to see him get a bit more creative and confident in the offensive zone similar to a Marcus Kearsey, but the Czech Extraliga is not the QMJHL, and Galvas is absolutely playing a bit of a different style of play than I’ve seen him play at the junior level. Again, similar to a Jiri Tichacek as a 17 year old. He has his rough spots, but I’m hopeful.

32) Miguel Marques - RW - Lethbridge Hurricans (WHL)

Miguel Marques is a player I was only vaguely familiar with during the offseason and into this year, and I’ll credit PuckPreps colleague Joel Henderson on pointing him out. The highlights are top, top end in this class. His one on one moves and moments of completely undressing goaltenders on their own would put him about 10-20 spots higher on this list. He’s a player I would love to coach and motivate, because you just know he could be great. The skill level is tremendous, but you don’t see him use it in the situations where it would benefit him enough. He’s a pretty soft defender, but when he gets free with the puck, he’s a monster. He can pass, carry and receive the puck in transition all at a high level finding success with all three. His offensive zone play is often fantastic, making plays for linemates often, generating shot assists all over the offensive zone more than many players tracked. He isn’t shooting the puck a ton, but he certainly can, again feeding into the potential of his game with the right coaching and development. He reads play off-puck decently well but can struggle knocking down and settling pucks to get play going the other way, but the positives are certainly there. He generates offensive zone turnovers at a high rate, and you’re absolutely betting on those highlights and remarkable moments to become more and more commonplace over the next two years. There’s a level of risk with Marques, but if you like to bet on raw talent, this is a great option.

The Rest of Tier 4

• Count me in the Dominik Badinka fan club. I’ve been watching him since playing with Jokerit in Finland’s junior system and have always liked the combination of footwork and skill. I didn’t think his J20 play this season really showed much built on top of what I remembered, but since seeing and tracking a few games in the SHL, the guy can straight up play. Evasive, a smart and capable defender who also happens to be tall and mobile, there’s a really nice package here. The offense hasn’t translated yet to the SHL but if it does isn’t really a concern of mine. He’s a well-rounded package at a high level and showing well in a tough men’s league, even if he has zero points to show for it.

• Noel Fransén has not appeared in many industry-focused lists and I am honestly not sure why. If there’s something behind the scenes affecting things, then I suppose it could make sense but nothing has been public. He’s a confident offensive defender with great edges and is effective when called upon. His defense in transition isn’t great, but if this is a guy you can land way later in the draft, why not?

• Beckett Sennecke has grown on me all year. He’s relatively quiet and unassuming for much of a game, but when he needs to open his bag of tricks, he does so to get through some kind of adverse pressure. His instincts, resilience and board work all project well to the NHL, with a solid shot to go on top of it all.

• Yegor Graf is also nowhere to be seen on the CSS list and to me that’s dumbfounding. Him, Ivan Demidov and Ignat Lutfullin have been dismantling Russian junior hockey together this season and Graf has been a major cog in that machine. He plays with intensity, quarterbacks offensive rushes well, and has plenty of offensive creation in his toolkit once the puck gets there. He forechecks well, and while he may not be a punishing physical centre, I think there’s plenty of potential there for the agile youngster, especially as a swing in later rounds.

• Matvei Shuravin is fine? Mobile, patient, intelligent with his defending, with some moments of rushing pucks up the ice, but I always finish games thinking “ok cool” and moving on. Is he a first round pick? Sure, this tier spreads well into the first round.

• Jett Luchanko has been interesting. Very young for the draft class, very smart with his spacing and pace in transition, good forechecker, makes smart plays more often than not, but has some decent fundamentals to build on. I may not quite pencil him as a first rounder in my books just yet, but he’s impressed me more and more the more I see of him. Similar things can be said about Clarke Caswell as well.

• Eemil Vinni might not have the numbers, but Scouching Discord Member and Future Considerations scout David Phillips highlighted him to me as his #1 goalie in the draft. It doesn’t take long to see why. Highly athletic and agile in the net, Vinni controls himself well between the pipes and has had some excellent international showings this year. I’m trying to learn more about goaltending this season and he’s been a lovely watch recently.

• Carter Yakemchuk is one I’ll probably get a lot of questions about. The confidence and skill in the offensive zone is undeniable, but to me much of the rest is a major work in progress. It doesn’t check out to me that Yakemchuk can be considered as high as a top-15 pick while Noel Fransén is literally not even a consideration when their weaknesses are somewhat similar defensively, but in my view, Fransén is more mobile, more practically successful in the offensive zone while not necessarily appearing in highlight clips as much, and doesn’t lose possession moving pucks up the ice nearly as much.

• Fyodor Avramov is someone I’ve kept in my back pocket all year. I think he’s just gross. Lightning quick shot release, high end skill, he’s relatively tall, and can throw his weight around. I’d love to see him attack the net a bit more, but he can beat goalies from range, and is a premier transition threat for Kapitan Stupino. I would love to see him get a couple of KHL games with HK Sochi down the stretch like talented linemate Artemi Kuznetsov, but there’s also no need to rush. There’s a ton of potential in his game and I’m not surprised to see him as successful as he’s been.

• Cole Beaudoin has been rocketing up my board the last couple of weeks. Highly active and physical, but capable of great bursts of speed to evade pressure or battle through it. He gets to the net, but leans more into his great touch for making plays to linemates in the offensive zone. He’s one of the most efficient transition players in my database, albeit in somewhat low volumes, but he looks to be a great complimentary energy player with a bit of grease in his game.

• Charlie Elick is such a Canadian defenseman. Not the best puck mover up the ice, but definitely shows capabilities of crisp breakout passes. He pursues physical play at all costs. His defensive transition numbers are worse than you’d expect because he’s leaving space through his physical play. He sits back on defensive transitions as well leading to lower volumes and relying on positioning more than anything. His tracked data isn’t super favorable, but he’s got a solid shot that he uses often, and I could see a decent minutes eater if you’re really down with somewhat more old-school physical defenders.

• I’ve liked Evan Gardner and am not sure why he’s so low on the CSS list. He’s just really good at stopping pucks, stopping rebounds, getting across the crease, he’s just… good?

• Hey look! Jiri Tichacek absolutely dominating the Czech league on one of it’s worst teams! Maybe he gets drafted finally but he probably won’t. Looking forward to seeing him sign a pro contract in a couple of years I suppose.

---

Tier 5 - Curiosities and Role Players

• This is certainly an interesting group of potential depth pieces, as well as some home run swings, with the former led by smooth skating, skilled and big boy defender Adam Kleber. I thought he had some good moments in the Hlinka Gretzky tournament, and hoped he’d lean into his skill to generate offense. While the point totals don’t jump out at you, he’s a highly involved offensive player for Lincoln, and I’ve certainly seen some moments of cutting to the middle of the ice and earning scoring chances for both himself and his linemates.

• Aatos Koivu, son of Saku is another one of these guys who is certainly his father’s son on the ice. While somewhat undersized, he’s a remarkably smart centre, finding space and providing strong puck support. All my viewings of him have been in Liiga and he certainly doesn’t look out of place there. I’m not sure of high end projectable NHL offense, but he’s another solid blank slate of a hockey player with the right feel for the game, a 200-foot approach, and enough smarts to make more good decisions than poor ones.

• Finally we get to Aron Kiviharju. His Liiga games were not good, plain and simple. Am I surprised? Not particularly. Kiviharju is a remarkably smart passer, juggling pass options and getting pucks going in a good direction, but the rest of the picture is a work in progress to say the least. He had some poor moments in his own end directly leading to goals against, his mobility is far from ideal, he’s passive on the rush, and gets muscled off the puck more often than not. He returns from injury before the end of the season, and I’ll be watching him, but other players have impressed me more over the season that has just bumped Kiviharju down the list.

• Cole Hutson isn’t his brother Lane, but he certainly tries to be. He edges and confidence are high end, but the rush defense is poor due to lack of backwards mobility, puck carriers plow through him often, and I have trouble betting on defenders who don’t show signs of a ton of NHL defending upside. If he’s a mid-round pick or falls really late then he’s a worthwhile swing, but it’s a tough call.

• Kuzma Voronin is one of the most fun players in this tier, and if fun-factor were all I was concerned with, he’d be higher on the list. Highly skilled, a quick wrist shot, plays harder than you’d think off-puck, and just needs to settle into a more dependable offensive role. He can overhandle and get overconfident at times, but this brings some shades of Daniil Gushchin to me. I imagine Voronin will be drafted later than he should be if we’re looking at pure skill and upside, and hopefully I look forward to adding him to Team Scouching this season.

• Many of these players are likely safer, NHL depth pieces. Will Skahan, EJ Emery, Ben Danford, Jacob Battaglia, Adam Jecho, Nathan Villeneuve and Carson Wetsch all come to mind as down the lineup dependable puck movers and physical defenders.

• On the other hand, high skill longshots are in here too. Voronin is one of them, but I’d put Thibodeau, Therrien, Gridin, and He in there. Tons of skill, a good amount of intensity but getting through pressure and close quarters skill are works in progress. I’ll keep my eye on them moving forward but these could be the typical mid-late round swings that look solid in models but may project a little poorer once the NHL comes around.

• Marek Vanacker is up that “good thinker but not a ton of high end tools yet” players. I’ve only seen him recently and will check in more, but he’s an efficient junior player with a projectable frame, just haven’t seen as much upside relative to many players ahead of him.

---

The Watchlist

• This is where the fun begins. These players are just names I’ve noted that are either massive swings for the fences or interesting re-entry players who deserve another look.

• Arvid Bergström was one of my best undrafted players from last year and he’s taken a nice step with his offensive confidence and skill level that has helped him produce more with his junior club. Defending at the men’s level is still a work in progress but as a late round swing you can stash in Sweden another three years, Bergström is one of the better options out there.

• Hey look, Kenta Isogai scoring a bajilion points. Who would’ve thought?

• Kieron Walton has been on my numbered list and Watchlist off and on all season. He’s huge, quite clunky on his feet, but the skill level and shot quality he has are top notch for a guy his size. I don’t know if he’s the most physical player down the road, but if you want a Liam Greentree-lite, Walton is a good option that I think could take a longer, but very positive developmental curve.

• Petr Sikora might be Czechia’s best kept secret at the moment. I’ve loved his play with the national U18 team and he shows good promise with his men’s team. He’s smart and evasive, just can be knocked around a bit like any teenager playing against men. I’m looking forward to his U18 appearance later this year and will be keeping both eyes on him after seeing him a few times this season.

• Ilya Pautov is just a ton of fun. Think a more skilled Dmitri Zugan for all you serious, serious draft geeks. Really creative player who pushes pace well and could be a nice late round pick you stash in Russia for a number of years as he develops.

• See what I just wrote? Copy and paste for Norway’s Elias Straume Vatne. To say I’ve been disappointed with is play this year after what I saw last year is an understatement, but I still believe. He’s a little buzzsaw out there, rambunctious and all over the ice with great finishing ability, but playing as part of a unit on the ice when he isn’t the guy like he was with Norway’s U18 team last year seems to be a struggle. He’ll overhandle pucks and turn them over often, look off clear pass options to skate into too much pressure, all kinds of issues… But boy is he ever talented. If I could trade Mr. Future Considerations for pick #224, Vatne might be the guy I take a swing on.

• Dominik Rymon and Ondrej Becher have been excellent at all levels all season long. I would highly consider picking them up and sending them back to Czechia to play at home at the pro level for a couple years before putting them in the AHL but they’re both high pace players that can evade pressure and make everyone they play with look good. Terik Parascak isn’t on my board, but when he finds space in the offensive zone, he buries it, and a lot of those pucks are coming from Ondrej Becher.

• Ok so this is around the first time I’m bringing up Ludvig Johnson. Johnson plays in Zug and caught my eye watching Leon Muggli on the U20 team early in the season. Johnson is a highly talented skater focused on mobility, smart positioning, and a good skill level. The point totals don’t jump out at you, but he’s consistently among the top shot differential players on Zug’s junior team as well as on the Swiss U18 team when he plays there. I see positive things in his future over the next few years in Switzerland, and if he shows at the U18s and plays as well as he has thus far for his country, don’t forget who sent you.

• Again credit to David Phillips but Ivan Yunin is frickin’ awesome. He’s an absolute ball of chaos in net for Omsk’s junior team. He barely plays, but he’s a tremendous amount of fun when he does. Immensely athletic in a similar vein to Petr Mrazek, who is absolutely all over the ice at times, Yunin can lose track of his posts and make life tough for himself, but I can easily see a good goaltending coach reining in the athleticism to refine his game. Again, maybe a guy you draft with a pick you just happen to come across while walking down The Vegas Strip in June, but he’s one I’ll have my eye on for the years to come.

• Cedrik Johansson is a guy who caught my eye while watching the underrated Almtuna junior program in Sweden. He’s tall, very lanky, but plays with great pace and a good feel for the game, spacing himself well to make himself a passing option, and practically using skill well to earn scoring chances. I’ve been surprised not to see him on the J20 team much, but he’s an intriguing package that may go undrafted, but won’t be undrafted in my heart.

• To close, Jesse Pulkkinen is all the way down here. Look, I’ve seen the player cards. I am aware of how many points he’s scoring. I get it. I’ve also watched him three times in Liiga and made a point to watch him at the World Juniors and I just cannot help but think that he’s an insanely confident and insanely tall “guy”. He carries pucks through highly dangerous lanes at limited speed, he has enough skill to get around one player, but I can’t help but think that stronger forechecks will snuff him out easily. His data at the U20 level is almost meaningless to me. Half of that league is basically a Canadian Junior C roster, he’s a 2004 born player, and his length and confidence basically allow him to dictate what he does on their own at that level. If you’re drafting him as a mid round swing, fine! Be my guest. But the first, second, even third player off the board for me? I might have trouble with that. Maybe I’m wrong, but it is undeniable that he is as scary as he is fascinating.

---

Thanks so much for reading! It means the world to have an audience that may or may not enjoy my work, but at the end of the day this is work. I’m at 300 tracked performances across four rounds worth of players to this point and I’ve loved every minute. If you are unaware, this season is an experiment in my life. I unfortunately lost my day job a few months back, but have started a company with some business partners where my tracked data can be licensed and accessed for organizations or individuals based on their needs. Combined with my work here with Scouching, I’m making a go of this as a day job. Being an entrepreneur has been a challenge, but a welcome one after years in a cubicle. This work brings me great joy, and sharing it with you is something I missed greatly while I was away.

If you like the work I do, like the show, want to join our Discord Server, or just want to help support me, consider a Scouching.ca subscription below. If you want to beat me into the dirt in Tabletop Simulator or get upcoming exclusive shows, see unique data insights into the NHL and the Draft, or just get my thoughts on demand, it’s all there with a subscription.

Thank you all again, I can’t wait to hear your takes, and I’ll see you in the livestreams! Mondays at 8pm EST, and Thursdays at 2pm EST.